This is a very interesting POLITICO presentation of US policy regarding the Ukrainian conflict, as well as forecasts:
“U.S. officials are planning for the growing possibility that the Russia-Ukraine war will turn into a frozen conflict that lasts many years — perhaps decades — and joins the ranks of similar lengthy face-offs in the Korean peninsula, South Asia and beyond.
A frozen conflict — in which fighting pauses but neither side is declared the victor nor do they agree that the war is officially over — also could be a politically palatable long-term result for the United States and other countries backing Ukraine.
It would mean the number of military clashes would fall, the costs of supporting Kyiv also likely would drop, and public attention to the war would wane.
Two other U.S. officials and a former Biden administration official confirmed that an extended freeze in fighting is one possibility for which the U.S. is preparing. U.S. officials also are thinking through the long-term security ties Washington will have with Kyiv, as well as Ukraine’s relationship with the NATO military alliance.
Still, even the suggestion of such planning could undermine Ukrainian leaders’ confidence in America’s continued commitment to their cause, especially given agitation among some Republicans to lessen support for Kyiv.
While many U.S. officials avoid publicly talking about how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will evolve, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley has repeatedly predicted that it will end in negotiations.
None of the administration officials who spoke to POLITICO would offer specifics about how the U.S. would handle a years-long war or describe the exact depth of planning for a frozen conflict — information that’s largely classified.
Analysts and officials warned against assuming that a frozen conflict translates to geopolitical stability or less suffering among civilians caught in the disputed territories. The Korean peninsula and India-Pakistan are both now nuclear flashpoints as a result of decisions made by governments involved in the decades since the fights first began.
“Conflict and potential for a renewed attack will not disappear, perhaps in decades,” said a European official familiar with Ukraine-related discussions,” writes POLITICO.
…All this means that in Washington they believe that the conflict will be long and there will be no winner in it. Gotta disappoint them...
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