РУССКИЙ
11:22 29.01.2025 •
U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. ex-President Joe Biden at the inauguration on January 20th.
Photo: Newsweek
U.S. President Donald Trump promises a new American approach to the world. As he was in 2017, Trump has been harshly critical of his predecessor’s foreign policy and pledged major differences in priorities and style. His supporters cheer the return to an “America first” attitude, one that emphasizes toughness, seeks concrete benefits from any foreign engagements, and centers on hardheaded dealmaking. His detractors fear a cramped, short-term worldview combined with an erratic, transactional approach to a complicated international environment. Either way, much of the world now braces for significant policy departures and prepares for a major lurch in U.S. foreign policy, writes Richard Fontaine, a CEO of the Center for a New American Security, he worked at the U.S. Department of State, on the National Security Council.
To be sure, a second Trump era promises significant changes after four years of President Joe Biden’s administration. Biden firmly committed to supporting Ukraine, defending Taiwan militarily, fulfilling the United States’ climate change commitments, and centering democracy in U.S. foreign policy. He stressed the benefits of the United States’ alliances and the threats that China and other revisionist powers pose to the global order. Trump, on the other hand, questions the need to continue aiding Ukraine, declines to commit to Taiwan’s protection, downplays climate change, and deprioritizes the promotion of democracy and human rights. He often portrays U.S. allies as free riders enriching themselves under U.S. protection and emphasizes the unfairness of trade deficits with countries such as China more than any systemic risks these countries might pose. The new president will surely spend his first weeks in office issuing executive orders and other directives aimed at visibly reversing Biden’s policies.
For all the differences, however, there will likely be far more continuity between the two administrations than meets the eye. Across administrations — even ones as different as those of Biden and Trump — foreign policy is something like an iceberg. The visible portion is gleaming and jagged and draws much of the attention. Yet it also has a far bigger and underexamined foundation, one that tends to remain mostly unchanged. Even as they focus on Trump’s differences in style and substance, observers should not ignore the potential stability in the United States’ approach to the world.
In 2021, Biden pledged to be everything that Trump was not. Biden reentered the Paris climate accord after his predecessor’s withdrawal, emphasized NATO’s importance after Trump was critical, and assured allies that “America is back.” Whereas Trump made his first overseas trip as president to Saudi Arabia, Biden pledged to make the regime in Riyadh a pariah. The president stopped Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization, quickly patched up burden-sharing disputes with Asian allies, and began planning Summit for Democracy gatherings, the first of which he hosted in December 2021.
On many other issues, however, Biden retained the essence of Trump’s approach. Key documents issued during Trump’s first term characterized China and Russia as strategic competitors of the United States, a framing Biden embraced. Biden kept the Trump-era tariffs on China and expanded controls on technology transfers that began under Trump. He executed the Afghanistan withdrawal agreement negotiated between Trump’s team and the Taliban, remained outside the Iran nuclear deal, and, like Trump — but unlike President Barack Obama — provided lethal aid to the government in Ukraine.
The two administrations could hardly have been more different in style and rhetoric. In the underlying substance of their policies, however, there was more continuity than the casual observer might have appreciated.
Many such areas of constancy will almost certainly remain in the next Trump presidency. The incoming administration’s approach to Israel, for instance, will likely be broadly similar, combining military support with protection both from Iranian missiles and diplomatic attacks at the United Nations and elsewhere. Policy toward Saudi Arabia will be comparable now that Biden has embraced the government in Riyadh and seeks regional normalization. Under Trump, Washington is poised to continue to see China as its foremost global challenger and endeavor to build domestic sources of strength.
The Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) among Australia, India, Japan, and the United States — which was established in 2007, revived by Trump, and upgraded by Biden — will endure, just as the AUKUS defense technology sharing pact among Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States is likely to do. Trump will probably back the bipartisan effort to deepen ties with India, an effort Biden supported but that predated him by several administrations. Biden and Trump also share a fondness for an economic protectionism that combines tariffs, “Buy America” provisions, import substitution, reshoring domestic manufacturing, and skepticism of multilateral trade agreements.
Stylistic differences between the two will remain obvious, but even here there will be exceptions.
Foreign policy stability across U.S. administrations is nothing new. Even in controversial areas and frequently in spite of campaign promises to the contrary, presidents often retain a good deal of their predecessor’s foreign policy.
Administrations of very different stripes can nevertheless share similarities because fundamental American realities change slowly. The deep wellsprings of U.S. foreign policy — the geographic, economic, and political conditions that shape Washington’s approach — are relatively stable. Policymakers tend to identify national interests and values in similar ways, even if their methods for attaining them vary significantly.
The new administration might pick up where Biden left off on Israeli-Saudi normalization efforts and could continue some support to Ukraine. Trump will likely seek, like Obama and Biden, to prioritize the Indo-Pacific in U.S. foreign policy and will face challenges, as did they, in doing so. He will also probably try to avoid direct military conflict with other countries, as Biden has done with Russia, in Afghanistan, and in the Middle East.
Trump will usher in departures, sometimes dramatic ones, in American foreign policy. But those changes will compose just a fraction of the total. The stability of U.S. interests and values, the role of Congress, and the realities of today’s world will demand a significant measure of constancy. Although it is bent on reversing Biden’s approach, the incoming team may itself be surprised to find out how much the two administrations share.
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