America’s Sugar and Spice Do Not Make for Everything Nice

Since Trump’s sonorous return to the White House, America’s resuscitation of talks with Russia has hogged the geopolitical limelight. With a couple of meetings and calls underway between the parties, the only thing that came close to the hullabaloo of Trump’s reverberant return has been the limited cheers emanating from Russian quarters. Unlike in 2016, when tops flew off champagne bottles in jubilant celebration, Russia is bearing less illusion this time round.

Nonetheless, any olive branch extended should still be welcomed even though it was really President Putin who graciously gave America a ladder to climb down from none other than the latter’s loss in Ukraine. That’s right, Russia inflicted a strategic defeat on NATO in Ukraine to finally land that infamous phrase—heavily recycled over the past three years—its rightful place in future history books.

The goodwill between America and Russia took an early restorative step via a prisoner swap. Russia extended the first courtesy with Marc Fogel, the release of whom enabled Trump to bask in glory before the international crowd, especially those back home. On the other hand, as a tried, true, and tested leader who no longer clamors after validation, Putin was perfectly comfortable with gifting Trump the accolade. Any closer and one might actually hear him utter “Let him have it” in suave nonchalance.

The first peace talk took place under the auspice of Riyadh to the rightful marginalization of Ukraine and European parties—it would have been pointless to include the latter since they have long ceded their decision-making powers to Washington. The arrangement also served as a wake-up call to those fooled from the onset into obstinately believing that the Ukraine conflict revolves around Russia and Ukraine.

Among the results achieved were agreements to enhance diplomatic relations by appointing ambassadors and abolishing obstacles installed in the Biden era. Also achieved were agreements on instituting a process for Ukrainian conflict resolution and concocting conditions for the resumption of bilateral cooperation. That both sides referred to the meeting as “constructive” spelled optimism that the whole world has been yearning for. Or, almost all.

Indeed, there are some who are less than thrilled, with Zelensky easily topping the list as seen in his tirade towards Trump. Why Zelensky found it fit to bite the hand that feeds can best be explained away by his desperation. As a recipient of a seemingly ceaseless gravy train and tranches of modern weapons, Zelensky (and his cronies) would soon see America’s monetary largesse dwindle even if US weapons continue to flow via Israel or elsewhere. It also appears that Putin has victoriously convinced Trump that an election is in order in Ukraine to ensure that any peace deal agreed to is inked by legal signatories. Russia does not care for spending time negotiating and signing any agreement that stands at risk of being declared void afterwards.

Then there are the European elites, the very ones who are experiencing an earthquake in their regional political center on both sides of the Atlantic. Having depended on US defense and security for 70 years, Europeans are about to have that carpet pulled from under them despite their unwavering loyalty and unquestioning obedience to the Big Brother. Far from looking pretty, the scene is one of Starmer plunging in the polls, Macron’s government collapsing, Scholz suffering an embarrassing defeat, and Georgescu being arrested for what could be his only crime—that of winning the presidential election. It’s obvious even to the casual observer that Europe’s political health is in grave condition, so much so that if the US packs up and leaves, the European center will rip apart at its seams.

Then there’s the whole fiasco over the deployment of peacekeepers in Ukraine, for which European elites have not been able to see eye to eye. After years of trying in abject futility to take up the mantle of European leadership, Macron remains far from rallying a unified European voice. Meanwhile, Starmer is seeking a “US backstop,” but the only guarantee Trump has in mind is the seizure of Ukrainian frozen assets amid a minerals deal violation. Besides, should the conflict end, what would become of the boogeyman Europe needs in Russia to forge the illusion of a cohesion?

Further east, Poland rejects the peacekeeping idea but warmly welcomes American troops and weapons on its soil, all while thirsting for a hosting role in NATO’s nuclear sharing mission. As a businessman who craves the best value on the cheapest dollar, Trump may be unwilling to fund the whole of European security but is likely to consider bolstering Poland to shore up Europe’s Eastern flank. Presently, he is attempting the use of soft power on Russia, but for soft power to be effective, it must be succored by hard power. This would also keep the pressure on Russia and ensure a fast and substantial surge capacity when the situation calls for it.

And just how might Russia be taking in all of these? One can only empathize with how Sergei Lavrov must feel every time he is interviewed by journalists who lack the most fundamental knowledge about Russia, its people, and its history. By the same token, the Russian side must be cringing over holding talks on the root causes of the conflict with American colleagues who could not even locate Ukraine on the map prior to the Special Military Operation.

As the list of negotiators continues to evolve, the American side is evidently unsure on whom to send for negotiations with the Russians, an endeavor requiring both a unique talent and a requisite expertise on Russia. For too long, US officials, especially those from the US Department of Defense and the US Department of State, have bought into the hubris that a language certificate from Monterey is more than sufficient to qualify one as a foreign expert. Little wonder the US persists in leaving a trail of mess the world over as they barge through regions haphazardly instructing others on the way to live.

Meanwhile, Putin’s friendly overtures towards Trump have unsettled those who fear that the lesson from the Minsk Agreement is lost on their leader. What makes it more unnerving is his willingness to collaborate with the Americans in the Arctic and space technology, two spheres in which Russia has left America in the dust.

As Trump works to distance Russia from China before focusing on taking on the latter, observers are also waiting to see whether Russia would stand by China the way China came through for Russia during its troubling times. Then there’s BRICS, which  achieved a strong stimulus from Russia’s 2024 chairmanship. Should its members succumb to Trump’s tariff threats and forgo their de-dollarization movement, we’re back to square one of permitting our world to be led and swayed by the whims and fancies of one—and only one.

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