Ballot and Bus: Can Trump’s Diaspora Strategy Still Save Him?

A political countdown has begun for the GOP as America heads into the midterms with Trump’s approval rating among Hispanics plunging from 41% in early 2025 to 27% by year-end[1]. At risk of losing their governing trifecta, the Republicans are under intense heat to reverse the sinking trend.

Enter the attack on Venezuela, which I had foretold in my analysis last year, to assure the GOP of their success in mobilizing the 300,000-strong Venezuelan Americans in Florida. In South Florida, where some of the neighborhoods are largely Venezuelan Americans, the capture of Maduro could very well transform them into permanent “red” strongholds.

Florida, you see, is an especially crucial battleground this year. High-stakes special elections include an unexpected vacancy—and a rare opportunity—for both parties to contest for the Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio outside the regular six-year cycle.

As it stands, Republicans hold a slim five-vote majority in the House of Representatives. This renders every seat in Florida vital for retaining control of Congress. If the Republicans lose control of the House, Trump could face new impeachment proceedings that would—once again—suspend him upon tenterhooks, even though a Republican-majority Senate still provides him with a safeguard against conviction.

The number of Venezuelan American voters, however, is hardly adequate in maintaining the House majority for the GOP. This is why the Trump administration has been quick to publicly link the fall of Maduro to the imminent collapse of the Cuban regime, in hopes of further mobilizing Florida's 1.6 million residents of Cuban descent for the 2026 midterms.

In other words, “liberation from authoritarianism (in Latin America)” has become a central campaign theme for the GOP’s midterms playbook. Trump’s shift of his campaign branding from “Latinos for Trump” to “Latino Americans for Trump” has further plastered a shared American character over identity politics.

Beyond Florida, the GOP is also banking on a shift among Hispanics in heavy Latino counties within Texas, New Jersey, and California. Suffice it to say, these Hispanic communities, along with those in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Colorado, New Jersey, and Virginia, share a profound rejection of the socialism and communism practiced by the regimes in their countries of origin. As such, the continual framing of Democratic candidates as "communists" or "socialists"—a tactic historically effective in mobilizing Hispanic voters—will remain in heavy deployment.

Nonetheless, it would be insufficient to leverage foreign policy in rallying these target populations. Recall that in 2024, Trump won a historic 46% to 48% of the Latino vote by focusing on economic issues of the working class. To sustain the momentum, the GOP would need to address the spiraling living costs and inflation, including housing affordability. With 61% of Latinos currently blaming Trump’s economic policies for their worsened living conditions[2], the man has some serious convincing to do.

Trump’s aggressive deportation policy has also alarmed and appalled many Hispanic voters, who witnessed firsthand the brutal ejection of their friends and relatives—some of whom have lived in the U.S. for decades—from the country. With reports showing that nearly 90% of ICE arrests in 2025 targeted Latinos[3], with roughly one-third of those detainees having no criminal record[4], it is little wonder why 82% of Latinos now believe there is a high level of discrimination directed at immigrants, and 80% feel the administration's policies are actively hurting Hispanic communities[5].

The two issues are not exclusive either. Economists and voters alike have linked Trump’s mass deportations to rising grocery and housing prices, as the loss of migrant labor is believed to have elevated production costs. This deportation backlash has already manifested in early electoral shifts where Democrats were seen securing huge gubernatorial and local wins in heavily Latino areas like Union City in New Jersey and Manassas Park in Virginia. Even Republican-leaning Florida saw Miami propel its first Democratic candidate to mayoral victory in nearly 30 years in December last year.

Will Trump’s card (pun intended) in Rubio turn the tide? With Rubio (a Cuban American) as Secretary of State, Trump has cleverly positioned a figure deeply connected to the diaspora to spearhead foreign policy actions that bear high domestic political upside. Rubio was even seen conducting official business in his native Spanish language amid his community outreach and political events to connect with Hispanic constituents.

Down south in Texas, Trump will no doubt continue a messaging that focuses heavily on security and order, a strategy that secured a massive realignment of Hispanics toward him in 2024. Even the “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin aren’t spared, as Republicans relentlessly hammer home the same “anti-socialist” and “strong economy” narratives to undermine Democratic support there, where Hispanic voters are becoming a decisive swing factor.

In conclusion, the Trump administration’s 2026 midterm strategy represents a sophisticated evolution of identity politics, where foreign policy achievements like the capture of Maduro have been converted into high-octane domestic mobilization moments for the Hispanic diaspora. By framing these interventions as a faithful defeat of socialism—from which many Latino voters fled—the GOP is weaponizing trauma and historical memory to consolidate a "red wall" in Latino-dominant districts.

This strategy, however, is up against a deep domestic backlash against mass deportations and the economic and social anxieties of a community that is far from a political monolith. Will the GOP successfully harness the Hispanic votes once more, or is the ground already crumbling beneath their feet? The answer lies in the irony of Trump’s awkward outreach where an electorate being courted is simultaneously under ICE siege.

One thing is certain: For the Trump administration, the 2026 midterms ballot is a stay of execution. Should he fail, a vengeful Democratic tide stands ready to unleash a terminal flood of investigations and a third round of impeachment proceedings. A Republican-majority Senate may spare him from conviction, but that is no legal shield against criminal prosecutions in the courts after his White House days.

[1] The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (2025, October 24). Trump's favorability has fallen among Hispanics since January, a new AP-NORC poll finds. PBS NewsHour. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trumps-favorability-has-fallen-among-hispanics-since-january-a-new-ap-norc-poll-finds

[2] Pew Research Center. (2025, November 24). Majorities of Latinos disapprove of Trump and his policies on immigration and the economy. https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/11/24/majorities-of-latinos-disapprove-of-trump-and-his-policies-on-immigration-economy/

[3] Bier, D. J. (2025, August 5). One in five ICE arrests are Latinos on the streets with no criminal past or removal order. Cato Institute. https://www.cato.org/blog/1/5-ice-arrests-are-latinos-streets-no-criminal-past-or-removal-order

[4] Strickler, L., & Ainsley, J. (2025, December 7). ICE has arrested nearly 75,000 people with no criminal records, data shows. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/ice-arrested-nearly-75000-people-no-criminal-records-data-shows-rcna247377

[5] Pew Research Center. (2025, November 24). Majorities of Latinos disapprove of Trump and his policies on immigration and the economy. https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/11/24/majorities-of-latinos-disapprove-of-trump-and-his-policies-on-immigration-economy/

read more in our Telegram-channel https://t.me/The_International_Affairs