Bloomberg: Europe’s nightmare is here - they have to fight without the US!

The Oval Office blow up between Zelenskiy and Trump laid bare for many Europeans that something critical has broken in their relationship with Washington, writes Bloomberg.

European leaders are confronting their worst-case scenario: maybe they really are going to be dealing with a bellicose Russia alone.

In interviews with Bloomberg, more than half a dozen officials who’ve maintained their composure through wars and financial crises reacted with visceral anger. For them, the scene showed the trust and values that have bound Europe and the US together since the end of World War II are no longer shared.

French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have all described this moment as a generational challenge for the continent. They’ll meet with Zelenskiy and other European leaders in London on Sunday to work out what their next move should be.

The European Union is aiming to follow up with an emergency package of €20 billion ($21 billion) in military aid for Ukraine at an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday. But that’s just a down payment on the hundreds of billions they will need to mobilize for defense in the coming months if they are to take over responsibility for their own security from the US for the first time in 80 years.

After years of hand-wringing and debates over the EU’s problems and weaknesses, doing that will require forging a political will that has little precedent in the history of the bloc.

For all the cynicism in parts of the West and the Global South, the US really was a symbol of freedom for eastern Europeans and they aspired to the principles running through American politics.

After Friday’s quarrel in the Oval Office, EU leaders lined up to voice their support for Zelenskiy and make clear whose side they were on. Trump is putting the Europeans into a position where they have to choose between the US and Ukraine, several officials said, and most, if not all, will pick Ukraine. For Europe, it is existential.

“A new era of barbarity has begun,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Saturday in a statement to reporters in Berlin. “An era of barbarity in which the rules-based international order and the rule of law must defend themselves more than ever before against the power of the mighty.”

Going it alone would pose an unprecedented challenge to European nations, but it will also likely be damaging to US prosperity and security too.

The trading relationship between the US and the EU is the most important in the world, reaching €1.6 trillion in 2023, according to the European Commission, while EU and US firms have €5.3 trillion worth of investment in each other’s markets. The European Commission is already preparing lists of goods to target if Trump follows through with his threat to impose tariffs on EU exports.

The crisis with the US has also drawn the UK closer to the EU again, after years of bitterness over Brexit. On Tuesday, the British prime minister said the shifting geopolitical landscape means a “new alliance” between the UK and Europe will be necessary.

Starmer has been in close contact with other European leaders to coordinate their approach on Trump and Ukraine, as well as strengthening the continent’s broader security architecture.

In the short term, there are holes in Europe’s capabilities that are plugged by the US. And even if they can muster the funds and the manufacturing capacity to supply Ukraine, US capacity in areas such as intelligence, space and battlefield communications would be difficult if not impossible to replicate if Trump shut down all support.

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