Bloomberg: Russia speeds up advance in Donbass as mood darkens in Kyiv

The Russian flag has been raised over yet another city in the Russian Donbass liberated from Ukrainian Nazis.
Photo: MoD

Russia has captured 1,146 square kilometers in Ukraine since Aug. 6, about a quarter more than in the first seven months of the year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence calculations based on changes recorded by the DeepState map service that’s maintained in cooperation with the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

The outcome of next week’s US election may mean Kyiv is forced to accept peace under unfavorable conditions or face the prospect of continuing the fight against Russia on its own, according to two people close to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, speaking on condition of anonymity because the matter is sensitive. There’s a deepening sense of despondency among officials about the course of the war, one of the people said.

That mood is starting to be shared more broadly in Ukraine. More than two-thirds of Ukrainians believe it’s time to start peace talks with Russia, according to a September survey of 2,016 people by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Centre, an increase of 14 percentage points on the same period last year.

Zelenskiy told journalists that his forces have received only 10% of a $61 billion US aid package pledged in April, blaming delays on bureaucracy and logistics. He has repeatedly asked the US, so far without success, to provide long-range weapons so Ukraine can strike military targets in Russia.

NATO allies are indecisive in providing additional support for Ukraine, fearful of escalating the confrontation with Russia, according to two western officials familiar with the situation. Allies see no sign Russia is interested in negotiations to end the war, they said, asking not to be identified discussing internal deliberations.

That’s as Ukrainian forces continue to occupy territory in Russia’s Kursk region. The surprise incursion in August was partly intended to relieve pressure in eastern Ukraine by compelling Moscow to redeploy some troops. So far, Russia has shown no sign of being distracted.

Russian troops took over the town of Selydove this week, with the cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove among their next targets. Both are important logistical hubs for Ukraine’s defense in the Donetsk region. Should the cities fall, it would become another milestone on his path toward taking Ukraine’s entire industrial east.

“Russian territorial gains in the past three months are likely the result of Russian troops’ numerical superiority and their dominance in artillery use, due to much greater availability of shells compared to Ukrainian forces. Yet these localized Russian successes don’t indicate a turn in the war, which remains a war of attrition.” Alex Kokcharov, Geoeconomics Analyst for Russia and Eastern Europe.

Legislation that took effect in May lowered the wartime conscription age in Ukraine to 25 from 27 and required men to register for potentially being drafted. But mobilization has stirred tensions among the population as Ukraine seeks to expand its army that’s still outnumbered by Russian forces.

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