Bloomberg: Trump says he’ll let Ukraine make Patriot missiles. It won’t be easy

Manufacturing Lockheed Martin Corp. Patriot missiles in war-torn Ukraine, especially at scale, would be a tall order. Just how difficult depends on what type of missile a new production line would produce, Bloomberg notes.

The PAC-3 variant, which can shoot down ballistic missiles and costs about $5 million each, is one of the most advanced air defense weapons in the world, and is now built in only two places: The US and Japan.

“A Patriot missile takes years to build, meaning Ukrainian production of these missiles won’t materialize on the near-term timelines they need,” said Bloomberg Economics defense lead Becca Wasser. “Plus Ukraine’s ability to swiftly produce drones and missiles may not apply to Patriot production, given strict US technology controls.”

Supply chains for current production are already stressed, and opening a new line would also require specialized equipment and training — both of which would add time to the project.

In recent days, Ukraine has said its forces weren’t able to shoot down any incoming Russian ballistic missiles as Moscow targeted major cities. That’s underlined the dire need for more Patriots, which Kyiv typically relied on to counter such threats. NATO allies have warned their inventories are limited.

Trump suggested his offer of production may mean no new supplies of actual missiles are likely.

Any new weapons factory in Ukraine would be a high priority target for Russian attacks.

“If I were doing it, I would have the Ukrainians build the factory in Poland,” said William Alberque, a Europe-based senior fellow at the Pacific Forum. “Otherwise it’s going to be a prime target. They’ll never be able to construct it.”

The US is rushing to increase Patriot missile production after using hundreds during the war with Iran. But Lockheed has said it will take until 2030 to triple output.

“Production is already constrained by existing supply-chain bottlenecks,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center. “Even if Ukraine builds a production factory, it still needs to build the network of suppliers. That is a significant defense industrial base challenge.”

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