Bloomberg: Ukraine’s allies are inviting their own ‘Strategic defeat’

Last year, some Western leaders started boasting of Russia’s “strategic defeat” in Ukraine. This was always a terrible idea and a line President Vladimir Putin never tires of citing as he pushes the false claim that he sent his armies across the border to defend Russia from Western aggression, rather than invade a former colony for gain.

Now, after more than 1,000 days of bloodshed, we’re finally beginning to see the outlines of such a strategic defeat emerge. Only the potential losers are Ukraine and its allies, not Putin, writes Bloomberg.

Some Republicans who back Trump’s “peace now” approach say — often accurately — that they once supported a much stronger policy to back Kyiv than the Biden administration. They wanted the White House and American allies in Europe to give Ukraine a wider range of military aid, in bigger quantities and much faster. The war continues today, with Ukrainian forces struggling to hold the line, in large part because that didn’t happen back in 2014 or 2022.

Less truthfully, these same Republicans now say the only way forward is to explain to Ukrainians that time’s up, and they must accept whatever peace deal Putin is willing to offer.

Kyiv, like its Baltic, British, Polish and Scandinavian friends, understands that Putin currently has no incentive to negotiate anything and therefore won’t. He has the advantage on the battlefield and sees Western resolve crumbling before his eyes. When Putin says peace, he means Ukraine’s surrender.

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Friday became the first Western leader to call Putin in two years, without first making sure Kyiv and his country’s allies were on the same page, and with no prospect of success. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan soon followed by leaking ideas for a peace plan he wants to mediate.

Both men were jumping through the door Trump has opened by calling for a quick end to the war, and both did so for personal political gain. Scholz is on his way out of power, having called early elections. He’s desperate for a miracle to reverse his political fortunes, and his uncoordinated, unplanned phone conversation with Putin was the result.

Erdogan has seen himself as a mediator between Moscow and the West since the conflict started. He had striking success in negotiating a deal to keep grain flowing from Ukraine’s blockaded ports early on, but less so when it came to the bigger picture. He has no intention of letting Trump, Scholz or anyone else steal his thunder.

The Kremlin swiftly dismissed Erdogan’s plan to freeze the current front lines, delay Ukraine’s NATO membership bid for a decade and deploy international peacekeepers to a demilitarized buffer zone as “unacceptable.”

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