Bloomberg: Will Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ be operational in three years?

President Trump speaks alongside Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in the Oval Office at the White House on May 20, 2025, in Washington, D.C. Mr. Trump announced his plans for the Golden Dome, a national ballistic and cruise missile defense system.
Photo: Getty Images

President Trump vowed to complete a "Golden Dome" missile-defense shield by the end of his term, which would offer protection from various threats despite some unproven technology.

The system's development is estimated to cost $175 billion, but the Congressional Budget Office projects it could cost up to $542 billion over 20 years, and some experts estimate nearly $1 trillion, Bloomberg writes.

President Donald Trump vowed that a “Golden Dome” missile-defense shield would be “fully operational” by the end of his term, and offer the US protection from an array of threats — even though some of the technology remains unproven.

“We will truly be completing the job President Reagan started 40 years ago,” Trump said in the Oval Office on Tuesday, referring to Ronald Reagan’s unfulfilled quest for a space-based missile defense system, widely known as “Star Wars.” He called the technology “about as close to perfect as you can have.”

Trump’s pledge is an ambitious goal given that much of the technology around the planned system remains unproven, especially plans for space-based interceptors to knock out incoming ballistic missiles. Congress is seeking $25 billion to begin work on the system and Trump said it could cost $175 billion overall.

That conflicts with an estimate from the Congressional Budget Office, which has projected that the US might have to spend as much as $542 billion over 20 years to develop and launch those interceptors. Even that could be a low estimate compared to other projections that it could require investments of nearly $1 trillion.

For perspective, since 2002, the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency has spent more than $194 billion to develop a layered missile defense system comprising individual interceptors, sensors, and communications elements in Alaska and California that work in an integrated manner to defend against potential missile attacks, primarily from North Korea.

Some experts have questioned whether a system of interceptors capable of destroying even small numbers of intercontinental ballistic missiles would be possible at all within the next couple of decades. Defending against a barrage from adversaries such as Russia or China is considered even more challenging.

“In our view, despite some high profile comments to the contrary, the capabilities of the current US systems are low and will likely remain low for the next 15 years,” according to a February report from the American Physical Society. The report found that many problems in developing such a system “are likely to remain unsolved during, and probably beyond, the 15-year time horizon.”

Trump has selected what he called an “architecture” for the system, without specifying what that was, and appointed Space Force General Michael Guetlein to oversee its development. He said it would protect against hypersonic, ballistic and cruise missiles.

Details of the proposal aren’t clear but the Pentagon earlier developed draft plans for the air and missile defense system in response to Trump’s Jan. 27 executive order calling for its creation. The idea has garnered intense interest from defense companies given the billions of dollars that must be spent to develop it.

Some experts have said a Golden Dome system could provoke a new arms race with countries such as Russia or China, which might shift their focus to develop systems that could avoid the US interceptors.

“Ultimately, Golden Dome may never achieve Trump’s grandiose ambitions,” James DJ Brown, a professor of political science at Temple University of Japan, wrote in a recent article. “However, even if it does not, it will have serious consequences for strategic stability and for Russia in particular.”

Chinese FM spokesperson Mao Ning.

China expresses grave concern over US ‘Golden Dome’ missile defense system.

When asked to comment on report that the US released details of the "Golden Dome" missile defense system on Tuesday, which reportedly will be done in three years, consisting "next-generation" technologies across land, sea and space, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that the so-called "Golden Dome" missile defense system is a global, multi-level, multi-domain missile defense system.

It openly seeks a significant expansion of outer space-based combat capabilities, including the development and deployment of orbital interception systems. It carries clear offensive implications, violates the principle of peaceful use of outer space as enshrined in the Outer Space Treaty, and will heighten the risks of space militarization and an arms race, undermining international security and arms control frameworks, Mao said.

The US pursues an "America First" policy, obsessively seeking absolute security for itself, at the expense of the principle of undiminished security for all countries. This jeopardizes global strategic balance and stability. China is gravely concerned over this development, Mao said.

"We urge the US to abandon its development and deployment of a global missile defense system and take concrete steps to enhance strategic mutual trust among major powers and safeguard global strategic stability," Mao said.

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