CIA conclusions: War in Ukraine ‘is shifting in Russia’s favor’, Hamas’s persistence and an ‘ambitious but anxious’ China

11:49 14.03.2024 •

Intelligence chiefs testify during a Senate Intelligence Committee on worldwide threats, in Washington, Mar. 11, 2024.
Photo: AFP

The deadlock in Ukraine is “shifting the momentum” in the war there in Moscow’s favor, US intelligence agencies told senators, Bloomberg informs.

Moscow has made continual, incremental battlefield gains since late 2023 and benefits from uncertainties about the future of military assistance from the US and allies, the top intelligence officials told members of the Senate Intelligence Committee in their annual presentation on the biggest “worldwide threats” facing the US.

“This deadlock plays to Russia’s strategic military advantages and is increasingly shifting the momentum in Moscow’s favor,” they said.

Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns …warned that without additional US military assistance, “Ukraine is likely to lose ground — and likely significant ground — in 2024.” He said Russia is interested in the “theater of negotiations” over ending the war, he said, and wasn’t ready to make significant compromises to do so.

US intelligence officials frequently offer blunt and politically sensitive assessments at the worldwide threats hearings, and Monday was no exception both in the written report and in testimony led by officials including Avril Haines, director of of the Office of National Intelligence, FBI Director Christopher Wray and Burns.

Their joint report warned of the risk of regional escalation in the Israel-Hamas war. It said armed resistance to Israel by Hamas is likely to continue for years and “it is likely that the Gaza conflict will have a generational impact on terrorism,” they said. It was an implicit rejection of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge that Israel’s current offensive will wipe out the group that’s considered a terrorist organization by the US and European Union.

The report said US spy agencies assess that “Iranian leaders did not orchestrate nor had foreknowledge of the Hamas attack against Israel” on Oct. 7 that sparked months of fighting.

The intelligence officials warned of increasing collaboration between Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, the four countries the US regularly lists as its primary threats and competitors.

Their report also warned of an “ambitious but anxious China… China views Washington‘s competitive measures against Beijing as part of a broader US diplomatic, economic. military and technological effort to contain its rise,” they said. Still, their report said Chinese officials will continue to seek opportunities to reduce tension with Washington when they believe it furthers their interests.

Biden’s intel agencies ‘expect’ protests to topple Netanyahu for ‘moderate’ leader?

U.S. intelligence agencies are claiming that they “expect” protests to bring down the Israeli government and replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been an obstacle to President Joe Biden’s plans for the Middle East, writes Breitbart.

The claim emerged in the latest “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community,” and was published by both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times Monday evening, suggesting a coordinated leak to the media.

The assessment says:

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has publicly stated his opposition to postwar diplomacy with the Palestinian Authority (PA) toward territorial compromise.

Netanyahu’s viability as leader as well as his governing coalition of far-right and ultraorthodox parties that pursued hardline policies on Palestinian and security issues may be in jeopardy. Distrust of Netanyahu’s ability to rule has deepened and broadened across the public from its already high levels before the war, and we expect large protests demanding his resignation and new elections. A different, more moderate government is a possibility.

Netanyahu was elected to his current term in office in November 2022 with a right-wing coalition that had the largest majority of any Israeli government in decades. His approval dropped during nationwide protests over his proposed judicial reforms, and in the immediate aftermath of the October 7 terror attacks, but recent polls suggest that his support has recovered, as he has led Israel to the edge of victory over Hamas while resisting international pressure.

Most important, there is no sign of division among the right-wing parties forming Netanyahu’s coalition.

Netanyahu has withstood U.S. pressure to accept the Iran nuclear deal; to accept a Palestinian state as the outcome of the war — which he says would be a massive reward for Hamas; and to retreat from its own border in the face of missile attacks from Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorists in northern Israel. As Breitbart News noted earlier Monday, reports have already emerged that the Biden administration is seeking Israeli consultants to help topple Netanyahu’s coalition.

Many observers have long suspected the Biden administration of working to bring down the Netanyahu government through a “color revolution.”

A State Department-funded group was at the core of opposition to Netanyahu’s judicial reform, and then-Ambassador Tom Nides was described as the “arsonist-in-chief,” as he openly supported the Israeli opposition movement and the protests. President Biden also froze Netanyahu out, refusing to meet him for months.

Polls suggest that the vast majority of Israelis support Netanyahu’s positions — opposing a Palestinian state; backing the continuation of the war until Hamas’s complete defeat; and preparing for possible war against Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon. Polls also indicate that the vast majority of Americans support Netanyahu’s approach to the war — and oppose Biden’s approach, which has sought to appease terror and dissenting left-wing and Muslim-American voters.

 

read more in our Telegram-channel https://t.me/The_International_Affairs