Epic Fury – “the most intensive opening air campaign in modern history”

America probably used just over 5,000 munitions of different sorts in the first four days of the war, and 11,000 or so in the first 16 days, according to analysis by Jahara Matisek, Morgan Bazilian and Macdonald Amoah of the Payne Institute of Public Policy in Colorado. That would make Epic Fury “the most intensive opening air campaign in modern history”, they note, eclipsing the first three days of NATO’s bombing of Libya in 2011, ‘The Economist’ writes.

In the first six days of the war, when American planes needed to keep their distance, CSIS, a think-tank in Washington, estimates that over 1,000 scarce and expensive “stand-off” munitions were fired. Hundreds more medium-range missiles, as well as anti-radiation missiles, which home in on air-defence radars, are also thought to have been used. Stocks of all these are far less plentiful, although the precise numbers are secret.

An even bigger problem relates to air defence. Iran’s initial salvoes of ballistic missiles and drones have burned through a significant chunk of American and allied interceptors. In the first week of the war, America is estimated to have fired around 140 Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptors and more than 150 THAAD interceptors. Stocks were already low. America had reportedly fired a quarter of its THAAD inventory last year while defending Israel against Iranian strikes.

The problem, however, is more to do with scarcity than cost. America is thought to have used more than 300 Tomahawk cruise missiles in the opening days of the war, but the Pentagon had planned to buy just 57 new ones in the current fiscal year. There have been no deliveries of THAAD interceptors since 2023 and the Pentagon has not placed any new orders this year. A puny 39 interceptors are slated for delivery in 2027 — six years after they were ordered.

The Pentagon has grand plans to speed up procurement with big, multi-year contracts. It wants to raise production of Tomahawks from 60 to 1,000 a year, and PAC-3 MSEs from 600 to 2,000, for example. But Congress has not agreed to pay for this.

The current pace of operations is likely to produce occasional “carrier gaps” — when America cannot deploy a carrier in some parts of the world — for two or three years, says Stacie Pettyjohn of CNAS. Personnel are also exhausted. Long deployments contribute to family stress, which is a risk factor for suicides, notes Mr Costa.

Indeed, the very process of testing new weapons and gaining experience under fire also carries a risk. “We are revealing our tactics to China,” says Mr Costa, pointing to the question of how America might reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “The Chinese will learn about how we de-mine,” he says. “If the Chinese have a sense of our tactics and the time it takes, they will use that information if they decide to invade Taiwan.”

“There is no sugar-coating this situation,” argues Tom Karako, also of CSIS. “The scale of recent munition expenditures and the degradation of US missile-defence capability may well undercut deterrence in the Pacific for the remainder of this decade.”

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