Photo: NBC news
French President Emmanuel Macron has organized an ad-hoc summit in Paris for Monday, February 26th, in a desperate effort to find solutions to Ukraine’s chronic ammunition shortage as well as to send a clear message that Europe remains on Kyiv’s side for as long as it takes to win the war. The problem is that ordinary people in Europe no longer believe that’s possible, writes ‘The European Conservative’.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Estonian PM Kaja Kallas, Dutch PM — and NATO Secretary-General hopeful — Mark Rutte are among the 20 top officials expected in the Elysée Palace on Monday afternoon, along with British Foreign Secretary David Cameron.
The leaders believe a show of unity is especially important now, days after the invasion’s second anniversary and after Russian troops captured the city of Avdiivka. The Russians are making slow but steady gains throughout the front as Ukrainians are forced to abandon positions due to a lack of artillery ammunition and other vital equipment.
Apart from making a big stand, Monday’s meeting was focusing on solving Ukraine’s catastrophic ammunition shortage which is seen as the most imminent threat to Kyiv’s prospects on the battlefield.
One year ago, the EU pledged to deliver one million artillery shells to Ukraine by March 2024. Spoiler alert: it won’t happen. Not even half that amount had been reached so far with just a few days remaining until the self-set deadline, with the full amount expected to be delivered only sometime toward the end of the year.
The reason for that is not only that Europe wasn’t able to ramp up its ammunition production as much as it wanted, but also that non-Western nations are not too keen on selling their low-running stocks either. “Unfortunately, artillery and anti-aircraft ammunition are not widely found on shelves around the world,” said General Christian Freuding, the German Defense Ministry’s chief Ukraine strategist told Der Spiegel over the weekend.
Freuding told the paper that the German Ministry of Defense as well as other EU countries are racing with time to find potential ammunition sellers worldwide, but with only limited success so far. Most countries would rather hold onto their stocks while many are also uncomfortable about getting involved in the conflict, even if the West promises discretion.
For instance, Freuding said Germany had been pressuring India to sell up to a couple hundred thousand artillery rounds from its giant stockpile, but New Delhi declined the deal in order to maintain its amicable relationship with Moscow. Nonetheless, Berlin is still trying to strike a deal through intermediaries if possible. Lesser but similar deals are being prepared in the Balkans and in Africa too.
The big question that needs to be discussed in Paris and elsewhere, is whether Europe is ready to truly step up its game if the U.S. contributions dry up, including by further depleting EU weapon stocks.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen — who recently made a splash by donating her country’s entire artillery and ammo stockpile to Ukraine — thinks it’s time for drastic measures. “Sorry to say, friends, there is still military equipment in stock in Europe,” she told the other leaders in Munich.
A year ago, the idea was that EU nations could freely donate whatever they wanted because, with the help of EU subsidies, they would quickly ramp up the defense industry and replenish their stocks anyway. It works, but much slower than anticipated. Moreover, the European Peace Facility (EPF) — the EU’s defense cash pot — was there to reimburse every member for their donations, until some members started to abuse it to modernize their equipment for a fraction of the price.
But if there’s one thing that there’s no shortage of in Europe, it’s optimism.
“We are determined, we are motivated and we are committed to Ukraine’s victory,” one of Macron’s top advisers said before the meeting. “There’s no ‘doom and gloom’ feeling on our part, [even though it] was an expression that was circulating a lot at the Munich Security Conference last weekend,” he said. “But I’ll tell you very clearly here, we’re neither doomy nor gloomy.”
EU citizens, however, have a much more nuanced take. A recent survey of over 17,000 respondents across 12 EU countries, published by the EU’s oldest and largest foreign affairs think tank, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), found that only one in 10 Europeans believe the war would end with Ukraine’s victory.
read more in our Telegram-channel https://t.me/The_International_Affairs