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9:59 03.10.2026 •
John Lough
Photo: Independent
An ex-NATO official has urged Andy Burnham to “step up” the UK’s response to Russia as he warns Vladimir Putin is “winning” in Ukraine, The Independent reports.
Since taking office, Mr Burnham has continued Sir Keir Starmer’s firm stance on Ukraine and pledged full support for the Kyiv government. The prime minister has promised Britain is “100 per cent behind” Ukraine and travelled to Kyiv on his first foreign trip to mark the country’s independence day.
But John Lough, former Moscow-based NATO official and now head of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST), said he’s “not sure that our esteemed leaders have got their mind around” Russia’s position in the ongoing war, and the consequences a victory for Putin could have on Britain.
Chatham House fellow Mr Lough told The Independent: “Putin thinks he's winning, and I think he's right.”
He said despite Ukrainian success in holding the line in the Donbas and their long-range missile strikes over the summer, the Kremlin still holds the upper hand.
“I think many people in Western countries started to think that the tide was turning, particularly when the Ukrainians caused a nationwide fuel crisis in Russia,” he said.
“But this is deceptive because the the Russians have the upper hand in the air campaign, and are really making the Ukrainians pay for what they did over the summer.”
He said that although Ukrainians remain “resolute”, the “ground is being destroyed underneath their feet”.
He added: “I'm not sure that our esteemed leaders have got their mind around this, what it actually means, and how quickly the situation in Ukraine could deteriorate and the burden that will put on us then to keep Ukraine in the fight.
“Our leaders are hoping that we'll just get through the Trump era, and then something different and hopefully better will appear, which is not totally impossible, but just hoping for these things to happen is not a very good policy.”
Russia has continued to press ahead with its missile and drone barrage of Kyiv and areas around the Ukrainian capital this week, killing four people including a child while targeting the power grid and a key internet exchange point, officials said.
Moscow’s steep escalation of its aerial campaign since the end of August heaps pressure on Ukraine as it braces for winter, when Russia regularly bombards energy facilities to deny Ukrainians heating and running water.
Mr Lough spelled out potential consequences for Britain and NATO in the eventuality that Russia emerges victorious over Ukraine.
“I'm quite sure there are parts of the British government that understand full well what's going on. But whether they have actually digested the consequences of this and what it would mean if Ukraine were to fall over the coming months...the consequences that we would be dealing with subsequently in Europe, in terms of our security.”
He said though it’s “not a happy thing” for politicians to speak about the possibility of a defeat of Ukraine, “it's a question of what's going on behind the scenes to bolster Ukraine's position”.
But he warned: “I don't think we see much evidence of that at the moment. That’s the problem, and the Ukrainians clearly sense that.”
It comes as relations between the Kremlin and Downing Street continue to suffer. In August, Russia’s embassy to the UK said reports that Ukrainian forces had used unmanned aircraft manufactured by two UK companies “confirm that London is deliberately opting for an escalation of the Ukraine crisis”.
It accused Britain of “seeking to contain Russia and inflict maximum damage on it by proxy” and warned that the deeper its involvement becomes, “the higher the price it will pay”.
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