Former Polish General staff chief: Planning for after Ukraine’s defeat

Rajmund Andrzejczak and Polish K2 Tanks.
Photo: ‘The Military Watch Magazine’

Amid mounting Ukrainian frontline losses in Kursk and the Donbas region, and growing questions regarding the Western world’s continued willingness to sustain the functioning of the Ukrainian state with tens of billions of dollars of aid, former Polish chief of the General Staff Rajmund Andrzejczak has projected a possible future deterrence policy against Russia following a Russian takeover of Ukraine, ‘The Military Watch Magazine’ informs.

Having served in his position well into the Russian-Ukrainian War, namely from 2018 to 2023, Andrzejczak stated: “After a Russian victory in Ukraine, we would have a Russian division in Lviv, one in Brest and one in Grodno.” “If they attack even an inch of Lithuanian territory, the response will come immediately. Not on the first day, but in the first minute. We will hit all strategic targets within a radius of 300 km. We will attack St. Petersburg directly,” he asserted, adding that Warsaw had to “take the initiative” in deterring Moscow.

Andrzejczak’s statement at the Defending Baltics conference in Vilnius, Lithuania, provides an indication of the gradual shift on consensus in the Western world that with the war in Ukraine increasingly appearing to be lost, defence planning needs to focus on securing NATO’s borders in an era where both Ukraine and Belarus will be in Russia’s sphere of influence and host Russian forces.

Tremendous losses among many of Ukraine’s most elite units during a large scale incursion into the Russian Kursk region from early August, consistent Russian gains in the Donbas regions, unsustainable Ukrainian casualty rates, and heavy losses of new Western equipment sent to the country, have been central factors shaping this consensus. Poland has notably been a leading contributor to the Ukrainian war effort, providing large quantities of aid, equipment such as Leopard 2 and T-72 tanks, and very substantial personnel contributions. Sources from both sides report Polish being widely spoken in multiple major conflict zones from Kursk to Bakhmut, as both contractors and volunteer units from the country have played key roles in bolstering Ukraine’s war effort.  

As among the most hardline states in the Western world on the need to maximise support for the war effort against Russia, fact that even in Poland a consensus has increasingly formed on the need to plan for defence following a loss of Western influence over Ukraine indicates the extent to which Western projections for the future of the conflict have become pessimistic.

…The Polish general's statement threatening to bomb St. Petersburg caused bewilderment in Moscow. Doesn't the general understand, even though he is a military man,  that as a result of a retaliatory strike nothing will remain of Warsaw? The fact that new prospects for ending the conflict in Ukraine are being discussed confirms -  NATO countries realized they should not expect  “strategic defeat of Russia” now...

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