FP: Trump-aligned businessmen are already making moves for trade deals with Russia

Special Envoy of the President of the United States of America Steve Witkoff presents Vladimir Putin the White House Senior Advisor, Commissioner of the US General Services Administration's Federal Acquisition Service Josh Gruenbaum, an envoy of the American business
Photo: Kremlin.ru

A key element of the Trump administration’s peace drive in Ukraine is a belief that revived trade ties between the United States and Russia will prevent the resumption of war — and that American investors will get rich in the process, ‘Foreign Policy’ writes.

But some who’ve played a role in Russia’s economic sector are less optimistic, casting doubt on the prospect that trade could guarantee peace and that Russia is an untapped El Dorado.

Investing in Russia “will be a very, very difficult environment for a very long time,” said Chris Weafer, the CEO of Macro-Advisory, a business consultancy that covers Russia’s economy.

Steve Witkoff, a real-estate developer, friend of U.S. President Donald Trump, and chief envoy to Russia on the Ukraine war, has framed trade deals with Russia after a peace agreement as a guarantee against future hostilities.

If “everybody’s prospering and they’re all a part of it, and there’s upside for everybody, that’s going to naturally be a bulwark against future conflicts there,” Witkoff told the Wall Street Journal in November.

Meanwhile, the administration appears to be salivating over the amount of money to be made if peace is declared. “Russia has so many vast resources, vast expanses of land,” Witkoff told the Journal. Trump also seems optimistic: In February of last year, Trump said that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin were discussing “major economic development transactions” between the United States and Russia.

Russia will likely be more welcoming to companies involved in gas, oil, and other industries that are key for the Russian state

Money doesn’t trump what the Kremlin sees as its core security interests. Any U.S. actions that appeared to threaten Russian security — which historically has meant anything from placing troops in the Baltics to stationing missile defenses in Romania — would still trigger alarm for Moscow.

To some who were involved in Russia’s economy in the 1990s and 2000s, the Trump administration’s thinking is all too familiar.

“Here we are once again, thinking that business can transform political relationships,” said Charles Hecker, a geopolitical risk consultant who served as managing partner of Control Risks in Moscow from 2000 to 2008. “And I think the answer to that assumption is that actually, no, it can’t.”

Russia will likely be more welcoming to companies involved in gas, oil, and other industries that are key for the Russian state, such as nuclear power, critical minerals, or agriculture, Weafer said. Russia is the second-largest producer of gas in the world and the third-largest oil producer.

But it’s unclear how many U.S. companies will bite.

On the one hand, mineral and oil extraction deals are highly lucrative, and — unlike private investors — these investments will be safer from predatory partners because they are dealing directly with the Russian state, Weafer said.

Some Trump-aligned businessmen are already making moves

The Kremlin previously appeared to dangle investment in Russian gas as a lure to the Trump administration. On the same day of an August 2025 peace meeting on Ukraine with Trump, Putin signed a law that would make it easier for ExxonMobil to win back shares in a major gas investment.

“Most will wait until they are convinced that the risk of a further outbreak of war is minimal,” Weafer said.

That’s not to say that no U.S. investors would be interested. Indeed, some Trump-aligned businessmen are already making moves. At least two Trump allies have been in talks with Russia on investments, according to the Wall Street Journal. Gentry Beach, a friend of Donald Trump Jr., President Trump’s son, has been in talks to buy a stake in a Russian gas development in the Arctic. Stephen P. Lynch, a Trump donor with long history of investing in Russia, has sought to buy Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

And while other U.S. businesses might not win favor from the Kremlin, Moscow is likely to protect Trump-connected types of investors from predatory Russian business partners, Verona said — making a peace deal a potentially lucrative development for them.

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