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11:39 01.11.2025 •
Economic carrots and sanctions aren’t powerful enough to compensate Russia for giving up its maximalist aims, ‘Foreign Policy’ stresses.
U.S. President Donald Trump wants a quick resolution to the war in Ukraine. But that goal has proved elusive and is likely to remain so, in part because of how highly the Kremlin values its multiple objectives in Ukraine.
The Trump administration made its latest gambit — sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil — on Oct. 22, striking a blow against one of Russia’s largest sources of revenue.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented the sanctions as a response to Russian intransigence in negotiations and called for an “immediate cease-fire.” Trump, speaking on the sanctions, appeared optimistic about their chances of bringing Russia to the negotiating table, saying, “We hope that they won’t be on for long.”
The Kremlin, however, isn’t budging: The next day, Russian President Vladimir Putin shot back that Moscow would not change its negotiating stance. Russia has opposed a cease-fire along the current battlelines and instead pushed for broader concessions as a precondition for ending the war. Among its core aims is control of the Donetsk region, which it has failed to conquer despite more than three years of efforts and tens of thousands of casualties.
The sanctions follow a previous attempt at tempting Russia with economic deals and sanctions relief during an August meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska. That approach similarly resulted in no substantial agreement as Russia’s refused to agree to a cease-fire.
Neither the carrots nor sticks immediately available to Trump are likely to solve the war, according to Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“There’s absolutely no quick fix,” Bergmann said.
According to Peek, Russia’s core issues include a desire for Ukraine’s territory; concern over Ukraine’s security alliances, such as Kyiv’s interest in joining NATO and its insistence on securing a Western security guarantee; and the future composition of Ukraine’s military. Russia previously insisted that Ukraine should reduce its army to just 85,000 servicemembers and limit its missiles to ones with a range of 25 miles, among other demands.
But Russia has offered no concessions on a security guarantee from Ukraine’s Western partners, which is a sticking point for Kyiv, Peek said.
“That’s a political decision that I can’t really give a good timeline for the Russians making — I think it’ll take a beat,” he said, adding that Ukraine and Russia have also made little progress on the issue of Ukraine’s future military composition.
Bergmann discounted the likely impact of economic carrots in the form of trade deals or lifting some sanctions. In part, that’s because a Democratic Party victory in the U.S. midterm elections in 2026 could lead to those sanctions being reimposed, he said.
Meanwhile, Russia is continuing to engage with the Trump administration, seemingly in the belief that it can convince Trump to go back on his proposal of an immediate cease-fire.
Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev arrived in the United States last week and reportedly met with Trump administration officials over the weekend. “Only by taking Russian interests into account can the solution be found,” Dmitriev told to Fox News on Oct. 25, listing a resolution of the “territory” issue and Ukrainian neutrality among Russia’s desired outcomes.
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