FT: Emmanuel Macron’s options narrow as his fourth prime minister is on the brink

Emmanuel Macron.
Photo: Palais de l'Élysée

French president has few good alternatives if François Bayrou loses confidence vote in September, ‘The Financial Times’ writes.

Emmanuel Macron is grappling with narrowing options as his fourth prime minister in two years hangs on by a thread and markets are alarmed by France’s political and fiscal crisis.

People close to the French president say he is already preparing for the likelihood that the premier, François Bayrou, will lose a confidence vote next month. Bayrou earlier this week took politicians and markets by surprise by calling for the vote, in an attempt to bolster parliamentary backing for his strategy on how to rein in the country’s ballooning deficit.

Although Macron is still publicly urging lawmakers to support Bayrou in the September 8 vote, he is also consulting allies over next steps, including options for a new prime minister able to get a 2026 budget adopted without further political turmoil.

None of Macron’s options are particularly appealing if the opposition follows through on their promise to topple Bayrou. He can name another prime minister from his own camp or a rightwing politician to try to maintain the same strategy. Or he can switch tack to name a moderate leftist, such as a Socialist, knowing that they will undo some of his reforms.

In no scenarios would any of these governments enjoy a parliamentary majority, so Macron could ultimately try to break the deadlock by calling again for new elections.

The president, whose second and last term ends in mid-2027, has sought to shift the blame on the opposition — particularly the key swing blocs of Marine Le Pen’s far right and the Socialists.

“It is up to the political parties to rise to the occasion by finding ways of compromise and stability, as is the practice throughout Europe,” Macron told Journal du Dimanche newspaper on Tuesday. “If they were to choose disorder, they would bear a heavy responsibility in the current delicate geopolitical moment.”

But the crisis is largely one of Macron’s own doing.

Since he called and lost parliamentary elections last year, his centre and right-wing alliance has been left without a majority in the assembly. His first pick for premier, the conservative politician and former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, was in office for just three months before being toppled over his unpopular 2025 budget.

Bayrou managed to get a slightly watered down budget adopted in February because he convinced the Socialists to abstain, but they have already said they will not repeat the favour on his new proposals for €44bn of spending cuts and tax rises in the 2026 budget.

Le Pen and far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon have even called on Macron to resign to pave the way for an early presidential vote, but he has repeatedly vowed he would never do so.

An Elabe opinion poll published on Tuesday showed 67 per cent wanted Macron to resign, while 72 per cent of respondents did not want Bayrou to stay on.

Erwan Balanant, an MP from Bayrou’s centrist Modem party, said voting out the prime minister would thrust France deeper into crisis. “If the government falls on September 8, we’ll find ourselves exactly in the same situation as we were in last July,” he said in an interview. “The question now is: who is ready to take responsibility today to find solutions?”

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