FT: Russian missile outpaces Patriot defenses – “the Patriots have to cover themselves”

Months of devastating Russian air attacks suggest Moscow has succeeded in altering its missiles to evade Ukraine’s air defenses, according to Ukrainian and western officials, ‘Financial Times’ reports.

Bombardments that targeted Ukrainian drone makers this summer were a prominent example of Russia improving its ballistic missiles to better defeat US Patriot batteries, current and former Ukrainian and western officials told the Financial Times.

Russia was likely to have modified its Iskander-M mobile system, which launches missiles with an estimated range of up to 500km, as well as Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles, which can fly up to 480km, they added.

The missiles now follow a typical trajectory before diverting and plunging into a steep terminal dive or executing manoeuvres that “confuse and avoid” Patriot interceptors.

It is a “game-changer for Russia”, said one former Ukrainian official. With Kyiv also contending with slower deliveries of air defence interceptors from the US, the missile campaign has destroyed key military facilities and critical infrastructure ahead of winter.

Ukraine’s ballistic missile interception rate improved over the summer, reaching 37 per cent in August, but it plummeted to 6 per cent in September, despite fewer launches, according to public Ukrainian air force data compiled by the London-based Centre for Information Resilience and analysed by the Financial Times.

Ukraine’s air force on Wednesday reported all four Iskander-M missiles fired overnight had eluded the country’s defences and hit their targets.

At least four drone-making plants in and around Kyiv were badly damaged by missiles this summer, said current and former Ukrainian officials. This included a strike on August 28 on a facility producing Turkish Bayraktar drones, according to public posts by local officials.

Two missiles launched in that attack appear to have targeted the offices of a company designing and producing components for drone systems, said two officials briefed on the incident. The Russian projectiles eluded Ukrainian air defences and also damaged the offices of the EU delegation and British Council, which were located nearby.

A western official briefed on Patriot performance data said the first indication of an upgrade to the Russian missiles was a marked drop in interception rates.

They said a “pattern” had emerged in which incoming missiles behaved differently in their “terminal phase”, veering from their previously established engagement settings.

The official’s assessment is supported by a report compiled by the US Defense Intelligence Agency’s special inspector general that covers the period of April 1 to June 30.

Ukraine shares Patriot engagement data with the Pentagon and the air defence system’s US manufacturers, said the western and Ukrainian officials. Virginia-based Raytheon makes the Patriot system, while Maryland-based Lockheed Martin produces the system’s interceptor missiles. The data is used to make updates needed to keep pace with Russia’s adjustments, but one official said those improvements often lagged behind Moscow’s evolving tactics.

Patriots were previously protected by other systems such as Europe’s Iris-T and medium-range batteries. Now, with some of those assets damaged or redeployed, “the Patriots have to cover themselves” while engaging incoming Russian missile threats in some cases, said one person familiar with the matter.

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