FT: The UK must accept it is no longer a global power

Pic.: NYT

Starmer has failed to level with the public that Britain’s control over its destiny is limited, ‘Financial Times’ notes.

Let us imagine for a moment that since coming to power, the Labour government had done everything right. That it had repaired the public finances, reformed our tax system, acted swiftly to conquer inflation. Think of your perfect government and let us picture a world where Labour has governed in that style for the past 19 months — a world in which all the things that Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves claim about their actions since being in office are not just true but are bashful, wildly self-deprecating understatements about their record.

This diversion into science fiction has a purpose, I promise. Hold this imaginary Labour government in mind, and now ask yourself a question: even if this existed in the real world, would the UK be able to withstand the economic consequences of US President Donald Trump’s war with Iran unscathed?

The answer, of course, is “no”. And this is true even if you imagine that Rishi Sunak, their Conservative predecessor, had a perfect governing record as well. You would need to construct an essentially fictional line of governments, particularly on energy policy, going back to at least the financial crisis if not before. The reason for this is that the UK is a middle power, and therefore one that is vulnerable to forces well outside its control. These are forces the British government cannot shape, stop or in many cases even mitigate.

What unites Britain’s politicians is that none seems able to accept, let alone tell the country, that the UK is a middle power whose influence over its own destiny is limited. And that for middle powers to prepare to weather the crises caused by bigger powers in an uncertain world can take decades. The inability to talk candidly about the UK’s role in the world means settling for a worse relationship with the EU and makes it harder to win popular consent for long-term projects such as building nuclear power stations or adopting heat pumps.

Part of the issue is that we have transitioned from being a global superpower to a country in crisis to (thanks to the Thatcher revolution) a financial services superpower. For a long time, this allowed British politicians to remain at the centre of world affairs and to talk as if they were not leading a middle power.

Now the country faces a less congenial global backdrop and, with it, our politicians are forced to confront the limits of their own power. Their reluctance means that we instead get farfetched policies from the opposition and Pollyanna-ish statements from the government. British politicians need to learn to live in and talk frankly about  the real world and the UK’s role in it.

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