How will Russia play America's charade of peace?

As Trump continues to swing back and forth on a pendulum oscillating between mediating and walking away from the so-called peace talks, the world, or at least those yet to be fatigued, swings along with him. In this drawn-out peace charade, it is easy to forget the origin of the conflict as characters like the United States, in its underrated work of political craftsmanship, knavishly slipped out of the regalia of perpetrator and into its modish costume of mediator.

And that’s not even the only pendulum transmitting a dizzying effect to those trying to follow the darting flicker of Trump’s laser pointer. Whereas he came across as erratic in his first term, Trump is coming into the second term with more clear-cut goals, even if he chooses to shroud them at times with what looks to be strategic intentions.

That’s why all the more it is important to go beyond paying attention to that which emits from Trump’s mouth while hanging onto his every word like a 24-hour news outlet. A more prudent way would be to check with diligence and clear eyes the alignment of his words with his actions.

Trump enjoys flattery and knows how good it makes one feel. By that same token, he has been radically generous with lavishing praises upon Putin, with the perceptible intention of drawing the latter close to him while reaping his trust. However, what Trump says about Putin should not be taken at face value but measured by the active steps he is taking towards Russia. While he may be paying lip service to Russia on rapprochement with regard to sanctions and the like, it would be remiss not to examine how things are actually transpiring on the ground. New economic sanctions, including those on energy and banking, are awaiting his deliberately pending signature as America’s typical lever of pressure.

Going back to the origin of the Ukraine conflict, none could be clearer, more succinct, and more consistent than Russia has been. The Special Military Operation (SMO) was ordered after years of futile talks and a dishonored Minsk Agreement, an instrument set out to deceive Russia in the first place as the West sought to build Ukraine up militarily — while persecuting the Russian-speaking populations in Donbass. The question, thus, is not even why the SMO was launched, but why it took Russia as long as it did to do it.

A plausible reason might be Putin wanting to ensure that all alternatives were exhausted before taking the military route and the fact that Nazification and militarization in Ukraine were getting to the point where the West had their knife up to Russia’s throat. Truly, if Ukraine did become a NATO member, a hypersonic missile placed on Ukrainian soil would hit the heart of Moscow in under five minutes like a slit to Russia’s jugular vein. But for reasons of inconvenience, this is a fact staunchly disregarded by those denying SMO as a provoked response.

None is more cognizant of this than the United States, but at least with Trump, he has chosen to acknowledge Russia’s judicious complaints of the encroaching menaces posed by NATO and even made threats about withdrawing the United States from NATO. However, make no mistake, Trump, like Harris, had his campaign pockets padded with wads and wads of cash by the defense industry. Be it Trump or Harris, they have to pay homage to their biggest donors by ensuring the business of war is here to stay.

And stay it will, even if lip service is paid to bringing about peace in Ukraine. Russia has said time after time, that the West’s military aid to Ukraine prolongs the conflict. That is no mystifying riddle on how to end the conflict but a direct statement on how it can be ended. If the United States is genuinely sincere about ending the conflict in Ukraine, all it has to do is halt the shipment of weapons to Ukraine. The Europeans, if they so choose to protract a losing war, will be left to do so with their dwindling supply.

However, the United States is doing the very opposite of halting weapons. Between sending Patriot missiles to Ukraine via Israel, Trump has given his nod to $50 million arms exports to Ukraine via direct commercial sales. The only thing discharging anything louder than the firings from these weapons would be America’s hustling cash register.

So, peace, at least the kind the common man envisages, is far from the minds of the Americans and the Europeans. In their luxurious thoughts, where war means business and big money, peace has no place. For all his bankruptcies and failed business ventures, Trump is still a businessman, and the impulse to rake in fortunes regardless of what it takes surges and gushes through his veins.

Even if Trump manages to wash his hands off Ukraine on the surface, let’s not forget that the West’s ancillary plan has long been put into action. Formed in 1998, NAMMO, a high technology conglomerate headquartered in Norway but with offices extending from Europe across the Middle East all the way to the United States, served to consolidate the aerospace and ammunition industries of Norway and Finland initially. Although Finland was not a NATO member then, it was a close partner of NATO. Little wonder so few in the United States and the United Kingdom questioned the smooth acquisition of Tally Inc. and Chemring by NAMMO because the United States and NATO were all too happy to fuse their defense industries.

Therefore, even as we sit and scoff at Europe’s dwindling weapon supplies, it is better to be vigilant about the potential upsurge of their production to levels never seen before in history. The consolidation of NATO’s defense industries spells not only an augmented synergy of their research and development for futuristic weapons but also ensured compatibility in their weapon systems.  Linking European defense industries with that of the United States also bolsters their weapons supply chains, a key link that will not stand to be broken in their grand scheme.

In his usual stance, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, did serve up a worthy alternative by suggesting that if the United States gets out of the way, Russia could take care of things with Ukraine in a more efficient manner. Besides, the expectation that the United States—one of the key perpetrators of the Ukraine conflict—could now take on the role of an impartial mediator hinges between a parody and a satire. Russia’s been fooled before, but that shame smacked upon the West. Should Russia be fooled again, it would have to take the shame on itself.

Nonetheless, even as the charade plays on, the astute poker player in Putin lends some assurance that Trump is not the only one with cards held close to his chest. Two can play the game, and it remains to be seen how Putin can toss the cork out without losing the champagne, all while sipping brioche notes.

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