InfoBRICS: Brazil – next target of Washington’s drug war

Tensions are rising between Brazil and the United States: Washington’s demands over drug gangs, foreign prisoners, and refugee data raise concerns in Brasília about sovereignty and intervention. As Brazil resists, the dispute reflects broader clashes over BRICS, China, and the region’s future balance of power, ‘InfoBRICS’ writes.

Washington has proposed that Brazil accept foreign prisoners captured in the US, while demanding a concrete plan to dismantle the drug gangs PCC, Comando Vermelho, alleged Hezbollah-linked networks, and Chinese criminal groups operating in Brazil. It also seeks biometric data sharing on refugees and migrants entering Brazil. These demands carry veiled threats, especially given recent US actions in Venezuela and Mexico.

Lula’s government has rejected the proposals so far, fearing that refusal could lead to the formal designation of PCC and CV as terrorist organizations. Such a label would enable extraterritorial sanctions and possible American operational involvement, thereby undermining Brazilian sovereignty.

Washington’s policies toward Brazil often mix economic pressure with geopolitical signaling

Tensions between Brasília and Washington have already spilled into diplomatic incidents. Earlier this month, Lula blocked a Trump administration adviser from entering Brazil to visit former president Jair Bolsonaro in prison, responding bluntly that such visits would only occur if Brazilian officials received equal treatment in the US.

Washington’s policies toward Brazil often mix economic pressure with geopolitical signaling. Trump’s tariffs were thus a kind of power play aimed at “bullying” Brazil, particularly over its alignment with BRICS and China. Brazil’s growing economic ties with Beijing have long irritated Washington: the South American country today exports far more goods to China than to the US, for one thing.

Another layer of the dispute concerns digital sovereignty and information control. Today, with Big Tech closely intertwined with US geopolitical interests, as it is, such disputes are hardly trivial.

The tech industry remains deeply integrated with US intelligence and defense sectors, and increasingly shapes foreign policy decisions. So much for the simplistic narrative that Washington’s policies are purely about democracy or crime fighting. That being so, the current tensions reflect a broader geopolitical subtext. Brazil is, after all, the largest economy in Latin America, a key BRICS player, and a potential technological and industrial hub for the Global South.

Washington’s security arguments in turn deserve scrutiny in light of recent developments elsewhere in the region. In Mexico, CIA-assisted operations recently led to the killing of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the CJNG cartel. The immediate result was widespread cartel retaliation, highway blockades, attacks on security forces, and chaos across dozens of cities. Such decapitation strategies often fragment criminal groups rather than eliminate them, thereby intensifying violence.

The United States is hardly operating from a position of unlimited strength

If Washington now seeks similar tactics against Brazilian gangs, the results could be unpredictable enough. Brazil’s criminal networks are deeply embedded in local economies and prison systems. A blunt external intervention could easily trigger unintended consequences.

Yet the United States itself is hardly operating from a position of unlimited strength. The Trump administration remains deeply engaged in the Middle East, particularly amid escalating tensions with Iran. Resources are stretched thin, as exemplified by its diverting of South Korean-based anti-missile systems to the Middle East. Thus, Washington may increasingly rely on indirect pressure tactics in Latin America, ranging from sanctions and intelligence cooperation to diplomatic coercion.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s geopolitical role continues to expand. The country remains central to BRICS initiatives on financial and digital sovereignty. As I noted in October 2024, BRICS began discussing a new framework for global data governance and digital infrastructure, and that could challenge Western technological dominance (recent European discussions mirror this). Brazil is also exploring nuclear cooperation with partners such as Russia, a move that inevitably attracts attention in Washington.

So, is Brazil the next target in the hemisphere? The signs are certainly there.

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