Oil embargo of the European Union on Iran: punishment with postponement - “War of nerves” in the Persian Gulf - Oil import embargo on Iran January, 26, 2012 There are a number of factors nowadays which demolish the War Conceptions, well-established from the Clausewitz times on. The conception and practice to conduct the so-called “ Total Wars”, have passed away. The main purpose of those wars was to annihilate the enemy man-power as well to annihilate the man-power resources, able to compensate for the losses, incurred within long-distance front lines. To gain efficient threatening effect, the abolishment of the civilian population was well acceptable here too. As a matter of fact, Hitler was following the conception of Total War verdadero.
Disorganization, destruction of the vitally important infrastructure and communications, blinding of the enemy means of detection – here are the essential methods to conduct a modern war. The main idea here is not to annihilate the enemy manpower but to gain the maximum shock effect, destined to suppress the enemy will-power and ability to resist. Exactly a similar scenario was written for Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and which now seems to be being prepared for Iran too.
At least, the formula, which says that “the war means the continuation of politics but with other means” is still vivid, at the first glance. But under the present situation and circumstances this phrase is far from being able to surely determine every time the motivation of this or that war or find what or whose interests are provided with the certain hostilities. In other words, it still presents not easy at all today to answer the following question: “ The continuation of whose or what politics or interests may provide some certain war?”
The European Council Resolution, that imposes embargo on the Iranian oil import, has abruptly aggravated the situation around Tehran and even if it does not bring Iran on the edge of War, then it surely pushes it this way. The Leader of the British Laborites, Mr. Miliband, has already named this process as “Lunatic sliding down to War”.
It looks like paradox, but Mr. Obama, the US President and the initiator of the current aggravation, seems to be the last person, who is interested in such a development of events. The Blitzkrieg in Libya has failed, and the chances to win the campaign against Iran are still more scanty. The Iranian means of air defense are located all around the territory of the country, the more so, that Iran disposes of its own Air Force and missiles, capable to damage the US warships and principal strategic bases, placed within the region, including the Island of Diego Garcia. Iran is able, as well, to carry out strikes to the territory of Israel. Evidently, no one person in the White House can calculate it precisely which exactly phase of the War, successful or disastrous, will coincide with the climax of the Electoral Campaign in the USA. The more so, that any military confrontation with Iran would require from Mr. Obama and his Administration some more extra efforts and attention, obligatory for an intricate Election Race. An obvious question arises herewith: “Did it worth to go so far in confrontation with Tehran for the sake of some political aims of a tactical level, where one of these aims may be to neutralize critical statements of the Republicans, concerning some certain «softness» of the White House towards Iran?”.
The Law of the Global Financial-and-Economic System says, that none of its participants can take free-wheeling decisions, aimed exclusively at the National and, more over, at specific Party interests. Besides, the deeper the Economy of this or that country is involved in the process of Globalization, the less freedom it has to take independent decisions and the more it depends on the current state of affairs of the Global Order.
It is no randomness, that the United States more and more frequently consider the Open Global Economy as a threat to its National Security. In accordance with the order of the US Ministry of Defense and following the message of President Obama, certain researches were carried out which were trying to examine the reasons, why the financial crisis had occurred. These researches conclude that “shock strikes against the Global Economy” may turn out to become a disaster for the United States. The alike disasters may result in “fall of the population standard of living … instability and loss of the American influence abroad”.
After Iran declared, that Strait of Hormuz may be dammed, the United States are expanding the military presence in the Region The World Economy losses as a result of the devastating crisis, are evaluated as 50 trillion dollars, and one third of that sum lied down on the USA. To compare with: the economic losses incurred by all the countries of the World in the Second World War are estimated at 1.3 trillion dollars, whereas the expenses of the USA for all the wars in its history are apprised as 6.9 trillion dollars. Only a Global Project of at least the same scale can compensate such Global losses. Iran here can be considered to play a key role in the Caspian Region. Further more, the Caspian Basin is the third in the World according to the energy resources and, at the same time, an interlacement of international energetic communications.
Zbignev Bzejinsky wrote: “The strategic predomination in this zone, let it be even camouflaged with cooperation agreements, would be a decisive advantage, from the point of view of the «Global Hegemony» “. And as the Western experts admit, that from the Global Economics point of view “ the oil of the Caspian Basin may be of similar importance for the Industrial World in the XXI century as the Persian Gulf oil means now”.
But “the industrial appraisal” is not the only factor to estimate the role of the energy resources and communications in the Region. Oil and gas are highly-liquid products, and they are playing some magnetic role, thus attracting spare capital, as well as speculative capital too Nowadays, when the forecasts, concerning the development of the Global Economics and also the unsettled problems how to reform the financial-and-banking system are far from being optimistic.
The interest of the World financial pyramids and institutions to assimilate so large-scale resource is enormous and extends far beyond the US National Interests. This Global force, orientated towards its own interests, is able to vigorously accelerate the geopolitical processes in the World. And even the President of the USA can not ignore these interests while setting up his political priorities. The point of view of the Author may not coincide with that of the Editorial Staff.