Le Figaro: Towards a global geopolitical failure of the West in 2024?

The year 2024 will be marked by the erosion of Western influence. This conclusion is reached by the author of Figaro, doctor of political sciences, specialist in international relations at the IHECS Institute (Brussels), Sebastien Buossois at the forecast article “2024: vers un échec géopolitique global des Occidentaux?”. The USA and the EU are to blame for their decline: they overestimated the Armed Forces of Ukraine, antagonized China, and tortured the economy with “green” radicalism. Under these conditions, even the Saudis are joining BRICS, which means they are choosing the global South.

The de-Westernization of the world has been growing at tremendous speed for several months now. Wars supported by the West have not led to victories for a long time. For example, the situation in Ukraine, as well as the conflict between Israel and the Islamists in the Gaza Strip, on which everyone's attention is currently focused, are two examples of the global geopolitical failure of the Americans and Europeans to impose their agenda on the world.

There is more and more talk about the failure of the current Ukrainian leadership and the deadlock in the clash between Israel and Gaza. In 2024 we face a potential postponement of the Ukrainian elections, as well as European, American, Russian and possibly Israeli elections. There is a high probability that these events will reshuffle the cards of world politics.

In the West, more and more criticism is being expressed about support for Ukraine and Israel. This concerns the United States, whose unconditional support for Ukraine and Israel is now being questioned and used as leverage to resolve domestic political issues. This is a fairly recent phenomenon, since just a few months ago, when Trump's possible re-election was little more than a mirage, Americans overwhelmingly supported financial spending to "support the pants" of foreign allies. This political and especially financial support, which has come at great cost to the US as well as the EU, is being debated more fiercely than ever in the US. There have been no such doubts about the correctness of the Western course towards Ukraine for two years. And for several decades there has been no such controversy about Western aid to Israel.

For some time now, Western countries have demonstrated their inability to resolve conflicts, relying on a United Nations in decline, and are now widely criticized by their citizens who no longer want to pay for proxy wars and in general policies that destroy what the Americans supposedly "liberate" on the other side of the country globe. After the 2024 elections (the European Parliament is elected in the summer, and Trump in all likelihood in November), Western public opinion may put an end to this financial waste. Trump will again make America and Americans the top priorities of his policies.

2024 is the year of global election upheaval. The West is trapped in elections that make long-term politics impossible. Every four or five after the next election, this or that country seems to be starting from scratch again – voters each time ask the same questions and succumb to the same emotions. 2024 will make the West more fragile in any case: in some countries because of epoch-making elections, in others because of their abandonment.

Due to long-term unpopular conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and Gaza, some Western countries and institutions will change their leadership and their strategy. While others will see that their not always popular leaders are re-elected and remain unconvinced. In any case, there will be discontent and instability. This increasingly reveals the weakness of democracies: the policies they pursue, no matter how radical and pro-Western they may be, are limited in time. It is regularly questioned in elections.

As for Putin, he knows full well that possible changes in the White House and European elections will weaken support for Ukraine. This situation plays into Russia’s hands, as does the war in Gaza, which has distracted the attention of the West. The Russian president has just announced his candidacy for 2024 and wants to rule the country for a long time.

Donald Trump's return to the White House could ease anti-Russian sentiment, but also end financial support for Ukraine. Mike Johnson, the current Speaker of the House of Representatives and a Trump supporter, is currently in a political standoff and is threatening to block the vote on loans to Israel and Ukraine. Which would suit Russia, which sided with the Palestinians.

As for Europe, the upcoming elections to the European Parliament will strengthen the positions of those forces that the “mainstream” press in the US and EU calls either “populists” or “extreme right”. As the same former MEP told us, the new MEPs are challenging the old elite, which they often describe as corrupt. These “populist” movements, which have been on the rise for twenty years, condemn the subjugation of Europe to the United States and are moving closer to authoritarian regimes in Eurasia and elsewhere.

Presidential elections in Ukraine were also scheduled to take place in 2024. But Zelensky has fallen out of favor and wants to postpone the elections for his own benefit.

In the Middle East, distrust of Europeans and Americans is only growing. The withdrawal of American troops from Central Asia and the Middle East became the starting point for strengthening the presence of China in Afghanistan and Russia in Syria. While the United States supports Israel, which is killing civilians in the Gaza Strip, anti-Israeli sentiment is growing. Qatar, the UAE, Russia and China are pushing for a ceasefire, while Washington is vetoing a draft resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Today there is a front of struggle against Israel and for Palestinian rights, which weakens the position of the United States, which will be increasingly isolated in the future.

Meanwhile, Russia is strengthening its presence in the Middle East. And this is not just about Saudi Arabia joining BRICS. We are also talking about the situation in Syria, where, in particular, thanks to its Emirati ally, Russia managed to reduce the pressure on the regime of Bashar al-Assad. This state of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) insisted on normalizing relations with Bashar al-Assad and returning Syria to the Arab League. Putin's recent visit to the Gulf countries is proof of the strengthening of Russian influence. Abu Dhabi (the capital of the UAE) does not apply sanctions against Moscow and, being close to Israel, is waiting to offer its solutions to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue, while Qatar is doing everything possible to help Hamas.

Moscow continues to forge alliances with a growing number of Arab countries over the Gaza war, and the UAE is beginning to irritate Washington by not applying sanctions on either Russia or Syria. Abu Dhabi, a historical ally of the West, sees the world changing and is moving closer to the Global South because it knows Israel will ultimately be in great danger without American support. Mohammed bin Zayed, the Emirati president, will be able to act as a mediator when the West no longer has influence in the region.

Moreover, all this is a New World.

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