‘Le Monde’: Strait of Hormuz blockade poses threat to food security

The war in the Middle East has led to a domino effect, threatening to worsen global hunger. Geopolitical tensions are exposing the strong dependence of food systems on countries that produce fossil fuels and synthetic fertilizers, ‘Le Monde’ stresses.

In the wake of the global energy crisis, could the conflict in the Middle East, triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanon, also spark a new food crisis? Since late February, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – a strategic route in the Persian Gulf through which about one-third of the world's fertilizer production transits – has caused food prices to spike and raised fears of a future decline in agricultural production.

Food insecurity figures have remained alarming. International organizations are outspoken about the cascading consequences that could result from the current geopolitical tensions. These domino effects highlight the vulnerabilities of global food systems, particularly their dependence on fossil fuels.

According to the World Food Programme (WFP), if the conflict lasts beyond June, around 45 million additional people could find themselves in acute food insecurity at the highest levels of its classification scale, adding to the 318 million individuals already affected.

Vast overland detour

The United Nations has also expressed concern over the drop in remittances to Asian countries with large numbers of nationals working in the Gulf, such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka or the Philippines. The repercussions of the conflict are also expected to be severe in sub-Saharan African nations, which are highly dependent on energy and food imports. According to the WFP, the increase in food insecurity could reach 21% in West and Central Africa if the conflict drags on, and 17% in East and Southern Africa.

With shipping routes and logistical platforms in the Gulf disrupted by war, the delivery of aid to regions facing major crises has been severely affected – particularly in Afghanistan, Syria and the Gaza Strip, where famine has set in. To reach Afghanistan, food aid stored by the WFP in Dubai, which previously transited through the Persian Gulf, now has to take a vast overland detour via Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, resulting in delays in the delivery of vital food and medicines.

Since the Gulf countries and Iran are also among the world's leading fertilizer exporters the blockade of fertilizers – especially urea and ammonium nitrate – and the rise in their costs could lead to lower crop yields in several countries, even if the effects will be felt more strongly in the next growing season.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has also expressed concern that the energy crisis could boost the appeal of biofuels at the expense of food production for human consumption. "Higher oil prices increase the profitability of ethanol and biodiesel production, raising demand for feedstocks such as maize, soybean oil and palm oil," the FAO wrote in an analysis of the conflict's impact. "As a result, volatility in energy markets can rapidly transmit to food markets."

read more in our Telegram-channel https://t.me/The_International_Affairs