Maidan 3.0 and Poroshenko in power: components of the formula

11:49 14.11.2017 • Denis Baturin , political scientist

The external situation and internal political pressure makes President Petro Poroshenko to seek a formula of retaining power. This formula is very hard to find in the country experiencing regular takeovers since 2005 and currently living under control of the West that kept the old political elite considerably but also saw a new elite coming, the one spoilt by political limitlessness and under a cover of either the revolution (journalists who came to politics) or of the “trench laws” of the ATO (the military volunteers who were at war).
The problem of the Ukrainian political class is, first of all, when making takeovers or restorations of the former regime, it does not learn any lessons either from the history, nor the history of world takeovers. In fact, the “Orange Revolution” (2005), as well as the “Revolution of Dignity” (2014) were not true and revolutions at all. These were political takeovers when the ideology and social unrest covered the interests of the political elite and external political interests. The Ukrainian elite, part of which went up, and the other lost positions and resources, kept the main corruption schemes that considerably control the logic of the political process. Due to the “Orange Revolution” and the “Revolution of Dignity”, the mindset of the elite was covered with a thick layer of national patriotism and new state ideology of a country directed to Europe and NATO.
The current Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko is a representative of the old political elite who assimilated the following principles of the old school Ukrainian policy for 20 years:
  •  there are no resources both in policy as well as in business Without corruption schemes;
  •  these games can not be covered without political messages.
Takeovers in 2005 and 2014 greatly sped up the political and historical time in Ukraine. For the new representatives of Ukrainian political elite it is a very sensitive factor, as they do not have any resources besides those received from the old elite as official positions and sponsorship, as well as the new resource, social unrest and meetings. They feel that they are losing these resources. This part of the elite needs to urgently convert it into administrative and financial resources.
The only way out for this new fraction of the elite is a constant threat from the power and the resource elite owning the “factories and ships” and controlling the basic institutions of power. The target of this threat is keeping a political positions through blackmail of the leading power to get resources from it, that is power and finance.
That is how “Maidan 3.0 was born”. ( It was born from the elite layering, when then the new elite suddenly felt that it lost the game, that the economic schemes work without them. However, not only this scheme doesn't need them, it turned out that the power itself can also work without them. The power confirmed with their recent actions that it is not ready to make this the country more radical and democratic that will pose a threat to the current system
The indicator of this process are the attempts to break the relations with Russia and the law on changing the procedure of local administrations appointment. This activity takes place in the conditions of “Maidan 3.0”. Part of the elite participating in the unrest already declared that counter revolution has started and its final aim is Poroshenko’s “people’s impeachment” as they understand that they don't have resources to influence the power institutions to instigate the true impeachment procedure.
This is what people doing meetings say who chose to fight for Mikhail Saakashvili, even using him as a spokesperson: “Radha deputy from Svoboda party Yuri Levchenko speaking at the meeting called to overthrow the current power”. “Four years ago we couldn't even imagine that we will gather once again to push this power out,” He said. “We are making a takeover, but not a countrywide and just of a mindset,” Saakashvili said. (…) Previously Saakashvili informed that he means to start “people's impeachment” on President Poroshenko, in case the Ukrainian power continues to ignore their requirements. “If they continue to ignore our requirements, on December 3rd I suggest that we start people's impeachment. Let people do it themselves,” he said. (
“Let the people do that,” Saakashvili and his associates in Maidan 3.0 says. But this is a weak position, for a new takeover, to shatter parliament, the branches of power and the situation itself in different regions of the country, to finance those public actions they need support of a considerable part of the elite. The majority of the parliament now support the president, Yulia Tymoshenko party (“Batkivshina”) and “Samopomosh” have long left the protests as they became organizations integrated in the structure of power and having finance resources. This also proves that serious players having resources are tired of revolutions, as well as have uncertainty and lack desire to participate in a potential takeover or finance it.
That is why president Poroshenko is winning yet. As Mr. Saakashvili goes to strikes near the building of the Supreme Rada, and the number of politicians and political forces require that the country breaks diplomatic links with Russia, Ukrainian president does not notice Saakashvili and blocks anti-Russian motions at the stage of draft laws. On November 8th President Poroshenko spoke at the official meeting of “Petro Poroshenko Block” fraction in Rada saying that he is against breaking diplomatic links with Russia. (
What is the reason of such position of Poroshenko that is not in line with the mainstream of the Ukrainian policy? It seems a perfect subject to switch the media attention from the internal policy and economics problems. Poroshenko does not want to break diplomatic relations with Russia, as this time has long gone (in terms of his interests), right now such decision would seriously worsen the negotiating position of Ukraine in Donbass negotiation, cause new problems for the Ukrainian citizens working in Russia and impair the position of Poroshenko himself in the external politics sphere. We should also remember that there are presidential election imminent in Ukraine.
At the same time the system of regional officials appointment system was changed. (
Why did Rada vote for the new system? The point is that any type of filters (such as tender committee, tenders etc) make it harder to reach agreement between financial and political groups that always share regions and trade for the local authorities voices. Financial and political groups always support some parliamentary factions. At the same time, Poroshenko is improving his power and his positions before the presidential election.
President Poroshenko and the leaders of Ukrainian parties who have stable political positions do not need such activity right now, they are up for pre-election agreements and alliances, so the president is interested in finding an agreement with strong players and cannot pay attention to the personalities and events that do not pose a serious threat to him.
Such example shows that there is strong dependency on the interest of the ruling class. It looks that Mr. Poroshenko has taken a decision to use all the time he has for political maneuvers without looking back at the external powers and his foreign partners. That is why he is strengthening his power not paying attention to the allegations of counter-revolutions and blocking the initiatives he doesn't need. “Maidan 3.0” does not fit in this scheme of fight for power.


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