Monsieur Macron and European militarization

Photo: AFP

Trump vindicated the French president on self-reliant defense. But with Putin looming, the hard work starts now for Europe, POLITICO writes.

In 1956, as U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower dramatically forced Britain and France to back down from a military intervention to regain control of the Suez Canal from Egypt, French distrust of America started to simmer.

Almost 70 years later, Eisenhower’s Suez maneuvering is inextricably linked to current French President Emmanuel Macron’s long-running, so-far unsuccessful push to wean Europe off the American military support that has underwritten the continent’s security since World War II ended.

“It was a traumatic experience for the French elite, that our allies could abandon us,” said Yannick Pincé, a historian at the Ecole Normale Supérieure’s Interdisciplinary Center for Strategic Issues in Paris.

The cornerstone Macronian concept of “strategic autonomy” — investment in a credible, self-sufficient European defense so the continent can militarily take care of itself without America — is now set for its moment under the microscope. Disruptive U.S. President Donald Trump has seriously undermined the transatlantic relationship and the NATO military alliance, while aligning with Russia.

Macron’s insistence that Europe learn to stand up for itself was not always, to put it mildly, well received.

Neither were French warnings that America could one day turn away from Europe. "Nobody likes a Cassandra," said a French official, granted anonymity to speak candidly.

France has also long faced accusations of arrogance and shameless promotion of its own industrial interests under the guise of caring about European defense.

Emmanuel Macron’s insistence that Europe learn to stand up for itself was not always, to put it mildly, well received.

That changed with head-spinning velocity as Trump returned to the White House in January and promptly began negotiating directly with Russia about an end to its war on Ukraine, while cutting Europe and Kyiv out of the talks and triggering fears that the U.S. is set for a stunning diplomatic realignment with Moscow.

Just minutes after winning Germany’s vital snap election last weekend, the country's conservative incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz vowed "independence" from Trump’s America and warned NATO may soon be dead. Two days before, he had suggested exploring nuclear cooperation with France and the U.K. to replace the American nuclear umbrella — a startling shift away from his country's historic pro-American position.

Germany’s historic about-face was immediately noted in Paris.

“We’ve changed eras, that’s very clear. We’re wondering if the United States are still allies or adversaries,” said Valérie Hayer, one of Macron's top lieutenants in Brussels and president of the Renew Group in the European Parliament. “With Merz, we are getting one step closer to a European defense.”

“There was a form of mistrust, it's true, with everyone thinking that France was pushing its pawns. We have differences of opinion and sensitivities, because we have a different history, a different relationship with the United States," the European lawmaker said.

"But now we're all going to move forward, pulling in the same direction because, to be honest, Trump leaves us no other choice," she added.

Paris should, however, hesitate before crowing too loudly, as most of Europe had valid reasons to be wary of following France's lead, said Benjamin Tallis, a director at the Berlin-based Democratic Strategy Initiative think tank.

For all their grandiose rhetoric in the 1960s, "the French were never a credible alternative" to the Americans, he said. "Europeans in the decision-making elites understood they would be safer, more backed up by the kind of power the U.S. could provide."

One key reason for the lack of enthusiasm for France's strategic autonomy push is the sheer size of America's military might — including its nuclear weapons — and near trillion-dollar defense budget.

According to a study by Defense News, Europeans would need five years to build up some of the so-called critical enablers that the U.S. currently provides, such as battlefield command and control (C2), military satellites for intelligence gathering and deep strike capabilities.

Countries such as Germany and Poland — major buyers of American weapons — have built their entire foreign and defense policy on strong transatlantic bonds, said Gesine Weber, a Paris-based fellow at transatlantic think tank German Marshall Fund. Turning to Paris instead to anticipate a potential U.S. withdrawal from Europe, they feared, risked turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But while France's approach to pushing the subject of European defense often didn’t help — and countries such as Poland are not yet ready to let go of Washington — the time for niceties is now, definitively, over.  

As Weber put it: “Europeans must break the intellectual taboo of thinking about the security order without the U.S.

“It's quite the ‘I told you so’ moment for France, everyone in Paris knows it, and everyone at the Elysée knows it,” she added.

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