Russians and Ukrainians are killing each other over whether the United States, as the leading imperialist capitalist economy, will remain at the top of the world as a hegemon, or whether American corporations will have to share their profits with China, writes “Mysl Polska”. From a global perspective, Russia could not avoid this war, and Vladimir Putin's team realized this after Zelensky began talking about nuclear weapons to the applause of the audience at the Munich Security Conference in 2022.
George Friedman, in his book ‘The Next Decade’, used the term “pursuit of American interests” to define foreign policy goals and attached the phrase “restoring regional balance.” However, there could be no doubt that this was not about some kind of “regional balance,” but about ensuring the dominance of the interests of the United States and its corporations in a particular region. And this is a fundamental difference.
Only in the final pages of the book did he write that “balance of power strategy is essentially a form of naval warfare, since preventing the rise of rivals at sea makes American rule secure.” This mechanism was very clearly presented by Friedman in relation to the entire Globe. Using the example of relations between Russia and Ukraine, one can trace how his proposals for US actions implemented in political practice.
Friedman doesn't write about it, but at the root of what is happening we can see the fact that the defenders of the old global financial system are now desperately trying to save it. This system is experiencing extreme overloads, and its adherents believe that it needs to be saved and updated through a “great reset” and “reboot”...
Friedman does not hide that after the collapse of the USSR, the United States got rid of a dangerous and equal enemy. From the early 1990s until the early 2020s, the United States enjoyed the title of sole empire. Even the former socialist countries of Central Europe, which were previously in the orbit of Soviet influence, joined NATO.
However, from the point of view of the course of historical processes, this situation did not last long. Russia, under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, brought order to the economy, developed the gas and oil industries, metallurgy (including rare earth metals, needed especially in the electronics and aviation industries), reorganized and modernized its army. Western Europe has become dependent on cheap Russian supplies. According to some economists, the German “economic miracle” based largely on cheap energy resources from Russia.
From the very beginning, the United States surrounded Russia with a net of military bases and missile launchers and began to subjugate Ukraine and Georgia. Through Georgia, they supplied weapons to Chechen Islamic separatists.
The United States did not like the dependence of Germany and France on Russian natural gas supplies, especially since these countries did not support the US Ostpolitik and the NATO expansion process as clearly as Washington would like. From the very beginning, the United States did everything to block the construction and operation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline running along the bottom of the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany.
It is not surprising that since 2004, after the first Maidan in Ukraine, Putin’s team stopped believing in the sincere cooperation and good intentions of the United States. In 2007, Putin delivered his famous Munich speech, in which he called the collapse of the USSR “the most important geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” “Hawks” in the United States perceived this as an “announcement of the restoration of the USSR,” although they perfectly understood that this was impossible and was not part of the plans of Putin’s team.
In 2008, when the Olympic Games began in China, Georgia invaded South Ossetia killing many Russian peacekeepers. Russia responded with its troops within hours and neutralized Georgia. However, contrary to reality, in all countries subordinate to the United States, the lie is repeated that it was “Russia that attacked Georgia”...
When mass protests began in Ukraine in 2014, it was known that they financed by the CIA, allocated $5 billion for the operation. These protests led to the overthrow of the democratically elected government. The United States needed in Kyiv authorities that would clearly focus on the West. They needed to get rid of President Viktor Yanukovych, who had good relations with Moscow.
Just a month before the overthrow of this government, Victoria Nuland, a representative of American neoliberals, who held a high post in the State Department, had a telephone conversation with the US Ambassador in Kyiv, the transcript of which is now available to the public. She frankly said that she chose characters for the new government of Ukraine who are loyal to the West and the United States. So the Americans appointed a new government of a foreign country a month before the overthrow of the old one.
According to Friedman, the most dangerous event for the United States was the rapprochement between Russia and its raw material base and the European Union with its advanced economy. Friedman wrote directly: “America's goals in Eurasia, which includes Russia and the European Peninsula, are the same as in other regions: to prevent a single force or coalition of forces from dominating a given area of the Earth. Russia, in integration with Europe, could create such a power. Moreover, the population, industrial potential and natural resources of such a power would at least be equal to the potential of the United States, and most likely even surpass it.” So, the US concerns were serious.
Friedman writes that the United States has already opposed German-Russian rapprochement three times. The first time after the signing of the Brest-Litovsk Peace Treaty in 1918. For the second time in World War II they supported the Soviet Union against Germany. For the third time since World War II, the United States did everything to prevent the Soviet Union from rapprochement with Western Europe. Thus, the attempt to torpedo Russia’s recent rapprochement with the European Union and, mainly, with Germany was not the first, but at least the fourth attempt to torpedo relations that seem desirable for Germany and Russia from an economic point of view.
Friedman also predicted that the UK would become closer to the US, which became a fact after the UK left the European Union. He writes: “In this situation, the ideal solution for America would be the collapse of the Franco-German bloc within the next ten years. The President of the United States must work to create a deep divide between these countries... America must focus on limiting the power of Europe and work to destroy the Russian-German alliance.” In other words, like Britain, USA must apply the principle of the “balance of power” in Europe. Friedman predicted that an alternative to the Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis would be the Washington-London axis and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
The outbreak of war in Ukraine allowed the United States to subjugate both France and Germany for the time being, concludes Edward Karolczuk in the pages of ‘Mysl Polska’.
…This is a deep analysis that allows you to see the essence of the ongoing processes and understand them.
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