Newsweek: Trump’s Saudi nuclear deal fiasco may finally push ally to China and Russia

Pic.: Newsweek

President Donald Trump's decision to impose a heavy post-deal condition on a landmark agreement that would see the United States support Saudi Arabia in establishing a civilian nuclear program has threatened to tank the deal and push the longtime U.S. partner to explore separate arrangements with China and Russia, Newsweek notes.

Trump's declaration Thursday that the U.S.-Saudi agreement could only proceed if the Kingdom were to join the Abraham Accords, effectively normalizing ties with Israel, came less than hours after both nations announced the deal. The new clause, later reinforced by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, is widely viewed as a non-starter within Saudi Arabia, which has consistently held that diplomatic relations with Israel would be explicitly contingent on a roadmap for Palestinian statehood. "

Any normalization must be preceded by recognition of a Palestinian state within the borders, with Jerusalem as its capital, in accordance with the Saudi initiative approved by the Arab Summit in Beirut," Mohammed al-Sabban, a former senior adviser to the Saudi minister of energy, told Newsweek.

With no evidence that either Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would budge on that fundamental front, the U.S.-Saudi deal appears dead on arrival unless Trump decides to back down.

In the meantime, however, Riyadh has options and already has a history of collaboration with Beijing and Moscow on nuclear issues spanning uranium exploration, reactor technology, nuclear fuel and research. And with the prized contract of building Saudi Arabia's first commercial reactor now potentially up for grabs, the alternatives are all the more attractive.

"Saudi Arabia has many alternatives, such as China, Russia and others, and numerous international companies are ready and willing to cooperate with Saudi Arabia in this area," Sabban said. "But we believe that any agreement with any country must be fully respected. "I think that if America continues to listen to Israel on every little thing, it will lose the countries that cooperate with it in various fields."

Why China and Russia could step

In China and Russia are not the only nations with the capacity to fill the U.S. role, but they're likely the most significant.

European nations such as France and Germany also have had a role in nuclear cooperation in the Middle East, as has South Korea, which has emerged as an increasingly influential player in the nuclear and defense fields. Yet there are also strategic reasons for Riyadh's eyeing of Beijing and Moscow.

As part of a possible three-phase trajectory recently outlined by former Saudi diplomat Saad Abdullah Al-Hamid for the region's shifting view on security demands in light of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, should the first stage of "virtual deterrence" via obtaining civilian nuclear capabilities not prove sufficient in de-escalating threats, the next step would be a "diversification of strategic partnerships."

This, according to Al-Hamid, would entail "building multi-polar defense alliances [with China, Russia and Asian countries] to acquire hypersonic missile technologies and highly advanced air defense systems as an interim alternative to nuclear deterrence."

The third and "final option" entails one nation in the region actually weaponizing its nuclear program, producing a "domino effect." Then, he argued, "a 'multipolar nuclear Middle East' will emerge—the most dangerous scenario for instability in the Middle East."

That's probably not a scenario China, Russia or the U.S. would like to see. But given the volatility of the current conflict surrounding the region, Beijing and Moscow have added motivation to forge inroads with Riyadh.

What this means for U.S.-Saudi relations

The architecture for either China or Russia to expand cooperation with Saudi Arabia is already theoretically in place.

Over the course of at least a decade, Beijing and Riyadh have inked deals to launch initiatives such as the construction of a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor to power desalination plants and extracting uranium from seawater. In 2022, the state-run China National Nuclear Corporation established its Middle East headquarters in Riyadh.

Russia and Saudi Arabia signed their first major nuclear cooperation agreement in 2015, outlining joint research and the exploration of further projects. Reportedly, Rosatom and the China National Nuclear Corporation have entered bids to construct the Kingdom's first reactor.

But while Saudi Arabia has long engaged in a diversification of its foreign ties, some observers feel that Washington and Riyadh, whose strategic partnership has weathered many crises since its foundation during World War II, are most likely waiting for the other to blink amid the latest impasse.

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