NI: Russia’s new Middle East strategy

Pic.: MGIMO

Russia has not abandoned the Middle East, and many countries in the region still have reasons to expand ties with Moscow, ‘The National Interest’ stresses.

Don’t count Russia out in the Middle East. Conventional wisdom suggests Russia is rapidly losing influence across the region. (“Russia’s standing in the Middle East has cratered,” wrote Michael McFaul and Abbas Milani of Stanford University in July 2025, to take just one example). But Russia remains an active force in the Middle East, and the United States should move to thwart Moscow’s ambitions in the region…

Russia could emerge stronger in the Middle East than before in three ways

Russia does not just retain a presence in the Middle East; it is poised for a resurgence. Such a comeback would harm American interests. Absent punitive postwar terms — which appear unlikely — Russia could emerge stronger in the Middle East than before, in at least three ways.

First, Russia remains influential across the region, particularly as Moscow’s ties to American adversaries grow. Putin’s partnership with Iran, for instance, continues to strengthen. Recently leaked Russian defense documents confirm that Moscow has started assembling the first 16 Russian Su-35 fighters for Iran under a $6.5 billion deal that would modernize Iran’s air force and boost its air defenses, including against Israel. Putin is even attempting to mediate between Israel and Iran.

Second, Russia is still very much a presence in post-Assad Syria. Moscow retains its military bases there, serves as a key economic partner, and enjoys important political influence. New Syrian president Ahmed al-Shara shows no signs of abandoning Russia even while looking to strengthen his ties with the West. Sharaa has said that he made a deal with Moscow in December 2024 to stay out of the fighting, letting Russia drop Assad but stay in Syria. 

Russia also retains a presence in Libya, where Moscow relocated most of its military assets from Syria. All this lets Russia remain a force on the strategically vital Mediterranean—and to project power into NATO’s southern flank, the Middle East, and Africa.

Third, Russia retains strong economic and diplomatic ties with American partners across the region. No American friend in the Middle East has rescinded a major agreement with Russia; nor have any of America’s Middle Eastern partners sided decisively with the West to isolate Russia on the world stage for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. America’s regional partners made no move, for example, to join Western sanctions against Russia.

If anything, Russia’s economic ties with Turkey and the Gulf states have only strengthened after 2022. Russia’s non-oil trade with the UAE reached $11.5 billion in 2024, a 5 percent increase from the previous year, as Emirati companies continue to invest in such critical Russian sectors as energy and transport.

In August 2025, UAE president Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed visited Russia to strengthen economic ties between the two countries, following his participation in the Putin-hosted BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in October 2024. Most recently, Russia and Saudi Arabia signed a rare, visa-free agreement on the sidelines of a Saudi-Russian investment forum in Riyadh last December.

Russia’s clout across the region is poised to resurge

Russia’s defense industrial base remains durable, and if the Ukraine war ends or pauses, Russia would suddenly be able to sell Middle East states considerably more capabilities. Many potential buyers have pent-up demand for Russian kit. And many Middle Eastern actors never lost interest in Russian weaponry, even if they feared Western sanctions.

Many in the Middle East accuse the United States of hypocrisy and double standards, and they have noticed that Washington has done far more to support Kyiv than to support its Arab partners. Such perceptions, right or wrong, make the region receptive to Russia. And, of course, Russia also plays a central role in the global energy market.

All these areas of interdependence create opportunities for Moscow to project its narrative across the region, including through propaganda outlets such as RT and Sputnik Arabic, which already reach millions daily. In 2015, RT Arabic ranked among the three most-watched channels in Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, and Iraq. In 2024, RT Arabic reportedly reached 46.9 million viewers, with five times as many Facebook followers as Al Jazeera or Al Arabiya…

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