Niger government member: We must prepare for ‘war’ with France

Niger. Chief of staff Amadou Ibro at a rally of young people
Photo: AFP

A member of Niger’s government has urged his country’s citizens to prepare for “war” with France, as relations with the former colonial power hit new lows.

The military regularly has regularly said France is trying to destabilise the country since it came to power in July 2023, administration chief Abdourahamane Tiani recently naming President Emmanuel Macron the “sponsor” of a jihadist attack at Niamey airport, AFP quotes.

Tiani’s chief of staff Amadou Ibro told a rally of young people that he believed France was going to attack the country because French leaders blamed Niger for the poor state of France’s economy.

“Know this: we are going to enter into war with France,” he said in a speech widely circulated on social media.

“We were not at war, it’s now that we’re going to war with France,” he said, as the crowd applauded and some shouted “Down with France”.

Niger, a producer of uranium for use in the nuclear industry, is locked in a dispute with French nuclear giant Orano.

Niger army patrol in the Sahel
Photo: Getty Images

Deputy Director of the Center for African Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) Vsevolod Sviridov, in an interview with Izvestia, drew attention to the fact that a high-ranking Nigerian official did not talk about mobilization for war with France, but it is aimed, among other things, at preparing for a possible war with the Fifth Republic.

— We are not talking about any war yet. The mobilization, which was indeed announced in December, as far as we can tell, is primarily aimed at combating internal threats: terrorists, jihadists and various criminal groups. The potential threat from France is being used here to consolidate society. A full-scale war between Niger and France, a war in the sense in which we used to think, is unlikely now," the expert explains.

Valentin Bianchi, a leading expert at the HSE Center for African Studies, also believes that the likelihood of a real war between the two countries is virtually zero. He attributes this to the absence of representatives of the French armed forces in the territory accessible by the troops of Niger.

"Such a statement is not a formal declaration of war, but a rhetorical escalation marking the transition from a diplomatic conflict to a potential confrontation," explains Valentin Bianchi.

According to Vsevolod Sviridov, the statement primarily has domestic political goals: consolidation, support for the regime and its policies.

— The only threat that France poses to Niger is Paris' attempts to overthrow the current regime. France really has certain levers for this," the Izvestia interlocutor notes.

It is impossible to talk about a full-scale confrontation, the expert believes, but an attempt at a counter-coup and the coming to power of Paris-oriented forces is possible. France, in his opinion, may try to find support among part of the military and business elite to remove the current government, but Niger itself will not go to war on Paris.

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