NYT: The question hanging over peace talks – What will Putin accept?

Ukrainian and European officials exhaled after scrambling to soften President Trump’s surprise Kremlin-friendly peace plan. But a reality looms over the diplomatic frenzy: It will all come down to what President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is willing to accept, ‘The New York Times’ writes.

The Russian leader has signaled that he is prepared to continue fighting the war, despite high battlefield losses and economic pain at home, with the aim of forcing Ukraine to embrace demands that would subordinate the nation to Russia.

The realities on the ground, analysts say, give Mr. Putin little reason to temper his terms. Ukraine is relinquishing territory at a quickening pace. It is struggling with a domestic corruption scandal. It is also running low on money and soldiers, as well as losing the patience of the United States.

For the Russian leader, holding out for a broader Ukrainian collapse could deliver even bigger concessions.

Mr. Putin has said he wants a binding guarantee that Ukraine will not enter NATO, a pledge that the Western military alliance won’t expand farther eastward, limits on Ukraine’s military strength and special protections for the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine, among other demands. Talks in Alaska this summer centered on Mr. Putin’s wish to take the entirety of the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, including parts still held by Ukraine.

In recent days, European officials expressed dismay at points in the plan that would constrain NATO and give Moscow power over European security, persuading U.S. officials to put those matters on a separate negotiating track.

Moscow has dismissed as unproductive European counterproposals that circulated in recent days, and suggested that any plan departing from the fundamental understandings that the United States and Russia reached during the Alaska summit would be a nonstarter.

There are signs that Mr. Putin wouldn’t even have agreed to the original 28-point plan that caused an outcry for its Russia tilt when it emerged last week.

The Russian leader said the plan could be a basis for a peace agreement but would still require substantive discussion. His top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, said many of the positions were acceptable, “but not all.”

The proposal’s caps on Ukraine’s military strength, for instance, were more generous than what Moscow floated in failed talks in 2022. The U.S. plan would place no limits on Ukrainian military hardware. And it called for using frozen Russian sovereign funds in Europe for Ukraine’s reconstruction. All could be sticking points for Mr. Putin.

The Kremlin said Mr. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, would return to Moscow next week to discuss the details. Mr. Trump announced the visit on social media and said the U.S. Army secretary, Daniel P. Driscoll, would meet with the Ukrainians.

While Mr. Putin has said he is willing to continue fighting the war, the Russian leader is also eager to develop a deeper relationship with Mr. Trump, which could yield sanctions relief, economic cooperation and broader geostrategic benefits. Analysts say the Russian leader is enticed by that prospect but won’t sacrifice his primary war aims to achieve it.

Moscow may be hoping that if the latest round of diplomacy doesn’t result in a peace agreement, it will lead the United States to break off all support for Ukraine, possibly hastening a Ukrainian disintegration.

“Putin still wants it all,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But the main thing he wants is Ukraine in his orbit.”

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