POLITICO: Brussels holds its breath – “Trump is an interests-based politician rather than a values-based politician”

Photo: BBC

Donald Trump has taken back the White House, threatening to upend the world order and build a new American empire, from Panama to Greenland. So far, Europe’s politicians and bureaucrats have resolutely refused to explode in outrage, writes POLITICO.

The response to Trump’s fiery inauguration address from the corridors of the European Commission in Brussels was muted. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen didn’t even mention him by name in her speech at Davos.

Elsewhere, too, there was minimal pearl-clutching or gnashing of teeth when Trump withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, and only muffled grumbling when he scorned the World Health Organization and began the process of pulling out.

On the big three questions facing European and British leaders, the newly sworn-in president has so far been mostly silent: ongoing support for Ukraine, sweeping new tariffs, and the future of NATO as the continent’s security umbrella.

The tranquil response to Trump has been both deliberate and tactical. Europe doesn’t want to start any fights with the unpredictable new American leader, and understands that public moralizing only backfires.

“Cool heads are needed,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “It is perfectly clear that President Trump and his administration will keep the world on tenterhooks in the coming years, in energy and climate policy, in trade policy, in foreign and security policy and in many other areas.”

But Europe’s sang-froid should not be mistaken as pandering, Scholz added: “We can and will deal with all of this without unnecessary excitement and indignation.”

While it’s clear Europe doesn’t want to be at odds with the United States, it has also done much more work to prepare for conflicts this time than it had ahead of Trump’s first term.

On trade, Brussels and London have been war-gaming scenarios for months and have readied an arsenal of weapons for a trade war if necessary. Officials hope Trump can be persuaded not to hit European exports with punitive tariffs but are ready with a full range of responses including retaliatory tariffs, according to people familiar with the matter.

The European Commission confirmed to POLITICO that it was taking the offer seriously and would follow up directly with White House officials. “We need to establish contact with them and see how to move forward,” said energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. “The priority is to have a conversation, to engage early, discuss common interests and then be ready to negotiate.”

On supporting Ukraine, too, European leaders, including Britain’s new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, have been rapidly working on plans to show they are ready to take up the burden and negotiate future arrangements with Trump. That’s for two reasons: in case they need to, and to show Trump they are reliable collaborators and are not just freeloading.

“Trump is an interests-based politician rather than a values-based politician,” a senior Western official said. “So you have to appeal to his interests. It won’t be in his interests to look like Putin has won or he’s got a bad deal.”

…Panic in Brussels is noticeable.

Trump did not invite Ursula von der Leyen to the inauguration, as a person who was not elected by anyone, but heads the European Union.

Trump sees the EU as an economic competitor to the US, and will put pressure on it.  

Therefore, the talk in Europe about Trump as “an interests-based politician rather than a values-based politician” is an attempt to calm the highly agitated European bureaucracy.

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