POLITICO: EU promises big on defense but… “leaders locking horns over how to finance an €800 billion defense rampup”

Concern about a potential U.S. withdrawal or downgrade in Europe's security architecture has set off one of the biggest geopolitical crises to hit the continent in decades, with leaders engaging in a frenzy of diplomacy over the past two weeks, writes POLITICO.

Despite everything that's happened in the six short weeks since Donald Trump returned to the White House, that's about all European Union leaders had to offer Ukrainian Zelenskyy at an emergency summit in Brussels.

Sure, they hammered out plans to beef up the EU's defense sector, but ― and in the short term this is perhaps what matters most ― they fell short of agreeing on any new commitments to strengthen Ukraine's hand in the immediate future.

Kyiv is grappling with a cutoff in U.S. military aid and intelligence-sharing as Trump's administration dials up pressure on Zelenskyy to strike a rapid peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ahead of the gathering in Brussels, diplomats from countries that staunchly support Ukraine had voiced hope that the meeting would deliver new commitments to put Kyiv in a stronger position.

"We have to support Ukraine now more than ever," EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas said before the extraordinary summit.

But after 10 hours of talks, and despite a public embrace of Zelenskyy — who addressed journalists flanked by the leaders of the EU's top two institutions, Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa — the final conclusions brokered among national leaders focused only on their collective efforts to build up a fragmented defense sector.

The portion on Ukraine didn't even pass muster among the 27 members due to opposition from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who hasn't hidden his support for Putin and who stated his opposition to the statement ahead of the meeting, and stuck to that stance.

Without Hungary, 26 countries signed off on a Ukraine statement that draws red lines for future peace talks, calls for Kyiv's accession to the bloc and pledged future military aid without specific targets.

In closed-door discussions between leaders, Kallas said the bloc should focus on providing weapons for Ukraine, not just acquiring them for countries' own use, according to two EU diplomats.

The major question hanging over Ukraine's future is whether the EU can replace or somehow compensate for a cutoff in U.S. military aid and intelligence.

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal raised the point during closed-door discussions, according to EU official directly aware of the exchanges, asking: Can we go it alone?

The answer is a resounding silence.

The end of U.S. military support leaves a gaping hole in allies' ability to support Ukraine in all aspects of its war, most notably when it comes to intelligence and targeting information for precision weaponry.

“The end of intelligence sharing is very significant indeed for Ukraine,” Colonel Philip Ingram, a former British army intelligence officer told POLITICO. “It means losing access to target acquisition information for long-range missiles, but also intercepting incoming rockets and drone fleets. EU member states just simply don’t have much of a strategic intelligence capability because they’re so internally focused — countries like Germany just depend entirely on NATO. They now face the prospect of having to step up, but it takes decades and hundreds of millions of dollars.”

The defense discussion lasted for most of the 10 hours, with leaders locking horns over how to finance an €800 billion defense rampup and how much of their investment to spend on European versus non-EU sources.

Talks on Ukraine, however, were done and dusted in about 15 minutes, according to one EU diplomat. That said it all.