POLITICO: Europe war-games life after Merz

Friedrich Merz
Photo: AFP

The German chancellor's foes at home are rejoicing at his political downturn. But those in Brussels aren't. The EU can't pretend Friedrich Merz isn't in trouble any longer, POLITICO stresses.

After a string of humiliating election losses where the far right has made historic gains and an internal fight with his own coalition over social care policy, EU partners are starting to plan for the prospect that the German chancellor could be ousted — or at least distracted — in the crucial coming months, according to five diplomats and officials who spoke to POLITICO. They were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks.

Two European governments have even held internal sessions to game out what the end of Merz’s chancellorship would mean for EU policymaking, two of those familiar with the discussions said.

It's not a prospect they take lightly. Merz leads the EU’s largest economy and is the chief negotiator for wealthy countries seeking to rein in spending in the bloc’s proposed €2 trillion seven-year budget. He is also a driving force behind EU efforts to save heavy industry.

"Any debate about the German chancellor weakens Germany's role in the EU and in the world," said Wilhelm Gebhard, a member of the Bundestag and an official in Merz's governing CDU party.

With France facing its own far-right surge and a presidential election next year that could hand power to euroskeptic Marine Le Pen, few in Brussels relish the prospect of Germany, historically the EU's other major player, turning inwards or derailing important negotiations.

The contingency planning, which has seen officials and diplomats brainstorm the situation, comes after months of mixed signals from Berlin on EU policy, including car emissions and a proposed social media ban for children. Even if Merz stays in office, the political turmoil is already complicating Berlin’s work on the EU’s biggest files.

While Merz himself could be forced to resign in the face of his growing unpopularity, he would be replaced straight away by a successor from either his center-right CDU party or his center-left coalition partner, the SPD. That should give Brussels confidence "someone will always be in charge," said one of the diplomats.

Searching for a win

Those who know him insist Merz won't be distracted when it comes to EU affairs.

"Other politicians might say 'OK, I focus less on EU politics.' For him it’s just the opposite: It’s an additional incentive to show leadership in Europe,” said a person familiar with the chancellor’s thinking.

In the immediate term, Merz's political weakness at home could make finding compromise on the bloc’s next seven-year budget harder by pushing the chancellor to double down on Berlin’s hardline stance in search of a win, a further two diplomats warned.

As the leading voice for countries seeking a smaller EU budget, which leaders hope to agree by year-end, Merz has called for cuts of “hundreds of billions of euros.” Germany, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Austria and the Netherlands are pressing for overall reductions, while net recipients such as Poland and Romania want to protect their share.

"Strength comes not just from grand appearances in Brussels, but above all from stability, reliability and the ability to push through decisions at home. That is precisely what is lacking at the moment," said CDU Bundestag member Fabian Gramling. "Germany's influence in Europe also depends on how united and capable of action the federal government appears at home."

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