POLITICO: NATO seeks to prioritize fighting Russia and shrink forces for missions abroad

Pic.: publics

NATO allies are considering the biggest overhaul of their military planning in at least two decades — prioritizing fighting Russia over providing spare troops for places like Iraq and Afghanistan, POLITICO writes.

NATO’s 32 member countries have begun negotiating the alliance’s next capability targets, which determine the forces and weapons allies would provide in a conflict — and who would pay for them.

Under the draft planning document, allies would no longer be expected to provide enough forces to fight a major European war and conduct several smaller crisis-management missions at the same time, according to four NATO diplomats briefed on the text and granted anonymity to share the information. Instead, they said, they would plan to meet the requirements of one scenario or the other.

The proposal reflects “a very clear understanding that no matter what, for NATO, a major contingency in Europe will overtake any other priorities or events,” said Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary-general for defense investment.

That dovetails with U.S. pressure for the alliance to refocus its core mission on defending Europe, a project Washington calls NATO 3.0.

Allies face a difficult choice: whether to scrap the longstanding requirement to provide enough forces for both a major European conflict and several crisis-management operations outside NATO territory. The draft would replace that “and” with an “or,” requiring forces for one scenario or the other, rather than both.

The draft text has so far opted for “or,” NATO diplomats said, noting that talks remain in the very early stages.

“It’s going to be tough,” said a fifth senior NATO diplomat. “It makes a big difference if you choose ‘and’ or ‘or.’”

“NATO has come full circle,” said Oana Lungescu, a distinguished fellow with London's Royal United Services Institute and a former NATO spokesperson. “It makes sense that NATO’s main effort as a defensive alliance should be to deter an aggressive Russia and keep Europe safe, especially as the U.S. is reducing its commitment.”

Washington has pressured allies to scrap out-of-area operations like its Iraq advisory mission. Instead, it wants Europeans to pay more for their own defense and focus on defending alliance territory.

The Pentagon is set to unveil a review of its presence in Europe next month, which could involve withdrawing some troops.

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