POLITICO: NATO’s next nightmare – The French presidential election

Paris retreating from the alliance is no longer a remote prospect. But it’s a move that would cost both France and its allies. NATO is bracing for the very real possibility that the next French president could tear a gaping hole in the alliance, POLITICO stresses.

As the alliance grapples with doubts over Washington’s defense commitment to Europe and rearms to prepare for a possible attack by Russia, recent French polling shows around half of French voters in next year's election are backing hardline candidates who have objections to NATO.

Marine Le Pen from the far-right National Rally party wants to pull Paris out of the bloc’s integrated command, while Jean-Luc Mélechon on the far left has said he wants to quit the alliance.

A pullback from NATO by France — the EU’s only nuclear power — would send shockwaves through the alliance, throwing French deployments in Romania and Estonia into doubt, curbing access to key battlefield kit and blunting military coordination among the 32 members.

And the timing could also not be worse. Under Donald Trump, the U.S. has begun scaling back forces in Europe, leaving other allies racing to build up their defenses in response to warnings that Russia could attack the alliance this decade.

“With a lesser U.S. presence, what you don't want is a major European country distancing itself from the alliance, particularly at a time where the whole goal is for the Europeans, including France of course, to take on more responsibility,” said Jamie Shea, a senior defense fellow at the Friends of Europe think tank and a former NATO spokesperson.

The repercussions of leaving NATO’s unified command would spell trouble for Paris as well as the alliance.

“We hope that France understands the long-term benefits of a strong NATO… and that [requires] also France to be integrated quite fully in NATO structures,” Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen told POLITICO. “So we hope that in defense policy… they will keep their political line in a strong position.”

“I fear those elections,” said one NATO diplomat, who like others for this story was granted anonymity to speak freely about the sensitive matter. “Losing France would be dreadful.”

Plus ça change...

This wouldn’t be the first time France left NATO’s integrated command.

In 1966, then-French President Charles De Gaulle ended his country's participation in NATO military structures, citing a need for greater sovereignty. He booted out around 26,000 troops and forced NATO’s relocation to Belgium. Paris only reversed that decision in 2009, under former President Nicolas Sarkozy.

If it happens again, Paris is unlikely to fully cut ties with the alliance, said Fabrice Pothier, CEO of the Rasmussen Global political consultancy and NATO’s former head of policy planning. However, “it would be foolish to think that there would be continuity” under a new hard-line president, he said.

“The French have never been the most pro-NATO members,” he said, making the issue “low-hanging fruit” for populists.

According to internal alliance polling from this spring, which was seen by POLITICO, some 54 percent of French voters said they would vote to stay in NATO — the second-lowest of NATO’s 32 members after Montenegro.

And while France’s two-round presidential election system has previously prevented hardliners from winning as voters rally around more moderate candidates, that may not happen next year.

Both Le Pen and Mélenchon have made their cases loud and clear.

“We must leave NATO’s integrated command,” Le Pen said in late May — and it isn't just campaign rhetoric. According to an official with first-hand knowledge, she also made the point in a closed-door meeting with a top French military commander earlier this year. Le Pen also argued that France would eventually have to resume contact with Russia, added the official.

Mélenchon has gone even further. A long-standing NATO critic, late last month he outlined some of his key international priorities, including fully withdrawing from NATO due to America's “openly hostile” stance.

“There can be no question of remaining a member of NATO,” he told a conference in June.

May Day

In theory, a decision to leave NATO’s command structures could take place immediately, explained French Lt. Gen. Michel Yakovleff, former vice-chief of staff at the alliance’s military headquarters. The French president does not need to consult parliament, and the one-year withdrawal clause in the NATO treaty only applies to countries leaving the alliance’s political structures — which wouldn't necessarily be the case under Le Pen's policy.

In practice, however, it would likely take about one year, he estimated, as the transition would entail extracting around 1,000 officers permanently posted to NATO as well as setting up a liaison body to coordinate with the alliance going forward — just as De Gaulle did after France left the command.

The biggest fears in that scenario concern the future of the 1,200-strong French-led battlegroup in Romania, France's informal cooperation with NATO on nuclear arms and its specialized capabilities like satellites and intelligence, according to three NATO diplomats.

For example, without France, NATO’s military planners would lose access to Europe's only nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, an amphibious fleet that includes Mistral-class vessels, CERES intelligence satellites and a powerful navy capable of deploying about 65 percent of its fleet — a rate even above the U.S., said Yakovleff.

“The fact is we have a little of everything,” argued Yakovleff, adding that France's departure from the command structure would also have “budgetary consequences” for the alliance; France currently contributes 10 percent of NATO’s annual €5.3 billion operational budget.

“It would weaken the alliance because we are still the most consequential power… after America,” he said.

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