POLITICO: Ukraine’s security guarantees have been put in Putin’s hands

Zelensky is at a loss – the real power lies in Russia’s hands
Photo: EPA

Washington’s guarantees are the only viable path to peace. But no matter how strong Zelenskyy believes they are, the real power lies with Russia, POLITICO stresses.

As much as Europe may like to think otherwise, Washington’s guarantees are the only viable path to peace for Ukraine. Europe can’t even deploy its multinational force without U.S. logistical support. And as 2025 draws to a close, the question of Washington’s commitment remains a fundamental factor in efforts to move Russia’s war toward its next phase and, hopefully, a durable peace.

Regardless of Europe’s efforts to support Ukraine, the only thing that really matters is America’s security guarantees, which Zelenskyy must now secure — even if it means concessions elsewhere.

Yet, everything suggests real power lies in Russia’s hands.

While Zelenskyy has said the security guarantees “correspond to Article 5,” this core alliance commitment is fragile.

On the plane to the NATO Summit in the Hague this summer, Trump mentioned: “There are numerous definitions of Article 5” — and he was right. Article 5 is open to interpretation, and was deliberately worded as such in 1949 to prevent the U.S. from being automatically pulled into a third major war on the European continent. Therefore, it isn’t just a question of the letter of the treaty but also its spirit.

Of course, NATO is far more than just Article 5. Founded on the ashes of World War II, it’s also an alliance built on economic collaboration (Article 2), as well as an individual and collective capacity to resist armed attack (Article 3) . But if Article 5 was easily replicable, then alliances with similar strength would be established all over the world. In reality, mutual security guarantees backed by credible military force are rare.

So it’s questionable whether the U.S. would, in fact, choose to offer a guarantee that could force it to directly intervene in Ukraine, especially considering it’s provided measured support since 2014, consistently blocked the country’s path to NATO since 2022, and made it a priority to avoid getting directly involved in the war.

Finally, it is a maxim of war that “the enemy gets a vote.” So, as bilateral engagements between the U.S. and Russia continue in parallel with European and Ukrainian negotiations, Putin’s position will be important, whether one likes it or not. Russia wants a far more expansive deal with the U.S. on European security — something it clearly demonstrated with its initial 28-point peace plan. And with Putin refusing to concede on his maximalist demands to date, it remains unclear what Russia will accept.

Ultimately, regardless of how strong Zelenskyy believes America’s security guarantee is, its durability may still be based on Putin’s interpretation.

read more in our Telegram-channel https://t.me/The_International_Affairs