POLITICO: What the Iran war means for Ukraine

Zelensky looks insane – the war in Iran is ruining all his plans

Europeans struggling to cope with Donald Trump’s inflammatory interventions may be about to discover there’s one thing worse: Not being the object of his attention anymore, POLITICO notes.

As Trump’s ongoing operation against Iran takes priority with Pentagon planners and the White House, European officials fear he will lose interest in ending Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, now into its fifth year.

The practical impact if the U.S. becomes embroiled in a drawn-out conflict in the Middle East could be even more severe than the political effect: Ukraine may be starved of the American-made weapons it needs to resist daily Russian missile attacks — because U.S. forces are using so many of them against Iran.

Trump said on Monday that the U.S and Israel-led war on Iran could last four to five weeks, but that he is prepared for it to go longer. Some analysts have warned it has the potential to spiral into a broader conflict that may be hard for America to exit.

“There is a knock-on effect in terms of attention,” said Ed Arnold from the Royal United Services Institute defense think tank in London. “How do you pin Trump down for having a policy or looking into renewed efforts to curtail the Russians in Ukraine, when he’s just opened another front in a potential war? Equally, if you’re going to fire off a lot of kit and equipment into the region, you’re not going to have the spares on the shelf.”

“A lot of firepower including interceptor and other missiles have been expended,” the official said. “The U.S. needs to restock, meaning there is less for Europe or Ukraine to buy.”

Talks continue

On the face of it, Trump remains committed to finding a solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. His envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner met Ukrainian representatives last week for talks in Geneva.

The U.S. government said it did not have a capacity problem, when asked about its commitment to Ukraine. “The United States Military is fully equipped to achieve any and all of the President’s strategic goals,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said.

Yet Trump’s attempts to force the pace of negotiations, including by hitting Russia’s oil industry with U.S. sanctions, have so far failed to produce a breakthrough. Trump himself has said in the past that he might one day run out of patience and “back away” from trying to help deliver peace. “This was a European situation. It should have remained a European situation,” Trump said as long ago as last May.

The first tangible impact of the Iran crisis on Ukraine has already been felt — on the country’s bid to join the European Union. The EU had been due to give Ukrainian officials details of the next steps they would need to complete on their path to membership in the bloc, at a meeting in Cyprus this week.

But after an Iranian drone struck a British air base in Cyprus, the meeting was postponed. The delay is another disappointment for Kyiv, after the EU late last year failed to reach a deal on using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s recovery, then also failed to finalize a much-needed €90 billion loan that was promised instead. Without urgent new funding, Ukraine will face a budget deficit next month.

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