POLITICO: Why von der Leyen will face repeated challenges to her position

Ursula von der Leyen can’t get too comfortable. Around every corner there will be another referendum on her leadership, POLITICO writes.

When she appears before the European Parliament to defend her reputation three days ahead of a second set of no-confidence votes in three months, it’s in the knowledge that even if her centrist opponents are keeping her in post for now, there’s always a next time.

From trade deals and the bloc’s looming seven-year budget to questions about the European Commission’s commitment to transparency or even how she navigates the EU’s place in an increasingly competitive world, opportunities that allow members of the Parliament to pass judgement on von der Leyen’s performance will keep on coming. This week she’s almost certainly safe. But beyond that?

“We will judge her against her implementation efforts but that won’t be in October,” said René Repasi, head of the German set of MEPs in the Socialists and Democrats, the second-largest group in the Parliament after von der Leyen’s. She “has made clear that she has understood where Europe’s problems lie. Now she must implement her proposals.”

With European Council President António Costa playing second fiddle to von der Leyen on the world stage as she burnishes her relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump, and the leaders of France and Germany struggling to be as powerful as their predecessors, the Commission chief’s role is coming under the microscope more than it ever used to. The days of consensual EU politics seem over.

The S&D, the liberal Renew group, the Greens and even some of von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party are dismayed at her record. None are ready to move against her in any meaningful way right now, but few rule out the possibility of challenges down the line.

“We don’t exclude” playing the censure card “if we see the need,” a spokesperson for Iratxe García, chair of the S&D group, told Brussels Playbook, on condition of anonymity in line with policy.

Becoming routine

The two motions of no confidence this week and the one von der Leyen fought in July were proposed separately by groups on the relative fringes. The far-right Patriots and The Left are following a path trodden by the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists.

There’s little evidence they will stop trying. With only 72 signatures out of 720 MEPs required, no-confidence motions might start becoming routine. The tool isn’t new in the EU treaty, it’s just that lawmakers seem to have woken up to using it.

In any case, it’s not just the formal confidence votes. Other prominent issues in von der Leyen’s second term could well end up as referendums on her leadership. Even if the Parliament votes don’t remove her from office, they could hamstring her.

These include trade deals with the U.S. and Latin America and the Commission’s first “simplification” package aimed at removing red tape, which has been plagued by disagreements between von der Leyen’s EPP and the S&D.

And last week, those two largest political groups in the Parliament signaled they are ready to topple the EU’s proposed long-term budget as they oppose a change that von der Leyen pushed for.

“There is a clear frustration in Parliament toward this Commission, to von der Leyen namely, you never know when the political tides will change,” the official said.

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