President Trump’s resolution on Jerusalem status: regional and global context

21:39 26.12.2017 • Alexander Kramarenko , Extraodinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador
The resolution of the White House declared the other day inevitably caused an avalanche of feedback. No other issue in the current situation could be at the same level in terms of its symbols and layers, including the analysis of domestic situation in the USA. Even if a big banner “Closed for renovations” covered the Statue of Liberty, this would not make the whole world think that the USA is closing in order to focus on their own matters that are quite urgent right now, especially after the false start with changes during Obama presidency.
Like all the other things in the world, this resolution also has its logic that we need to understand. The external sphere goes to the second plane now. The allies will be given what they want but only at their count and only within the domestic transactional diplomacy. All that is in the way of the country to transform will be cut. This does not mean that the country will refuse their traditional external political strategy including the allies linking to the USA and creation of problems for potential competitors, but not at the account of domestic priorities, though only for the psychological comfort of the elite using the momentum that the country gained.
The hot position of the administration on the country can be seen in the fact that Donald Trump gave in to the evangelic wing (it has nothing in common with the New Covenant) of the Republican establishment and voters that no other president ever did. This segment of the American community follows the so-called “Christian Zionism” thinking that the holy places should be controlled by Israel until the “Orthodox” Christians come there. However wild this sounds, here we talk about a crusade by proxy. This time this will happen at a price all of the USA getting in the line of fire with the hole Islamic world.
Although the International Community is interested in success of transformational processes in the USA, they cannot agree with such a relentless approach in the “after us the deluge” style ignoring the interests of other parties of the Arabian and Israel conflict and the international legal practice of its settlement. This is not also in line with the status of the USA as one of the constant members of UN Security Council who bear special responsibility for maintaining the security and peace in the world.
After multiple attempts to implement a strategy of replacement of secular (baathist) regimes in Iraq and Syria promoting the local monarchies, first of all, in the Persian Gulf, the USA are in fact dropping these monarchies tell live on their own. It is not about the Palestinian question (who and how many times betrayed Palestinians in this region?), it is about the religious dimension of Jerusalem status and its holy objects. This touches critically the internal legitimacy question of the monarchies’ regime especially important for the Arabian world. Currently it is most crucial in Saudi Arabia that has been exporting Jihad for 40 years. Now that the jihadist project in Iraq and Syria fell flat, its final victim may be the Kingdom itself, based on the popular principle “he who lives by the sword…” The fundamentalists have never hidden that control over the peninsula and its holy objects was their final target. The situation around shist cut the region from the USA in terms of energy.
The resolution of Washington also kills the project of modernization of Saudi Arabia though its success was questionable prior to that too. Possible destruction of Saudi Arabia that experts and observers have been forecasting long ago and in different variants will raise the issue of joint control of the leading Islamic countries over Mecca and Medina to the agenda. So the “neo-ottoman ambitions” of Ankara are not that delusive. American bases liquidation in the region will hardly ease the situation of Riyadh and other capitals too, sooner it will be the other way. The issue of Islam future will get new dynamics too, especially its modernizations where the Muslim brothers can be the leaders, meaning Turkey and Qatar. The oil-bearing Eastern province of Saudi Arabia has many Shiites, will the Persian Gulf become “the Shiite sea”? That is, the construction of the regional politics will be broken in just one hour. The fact that it had to change radically at some period, is yet another question. It is clear though, that for positive transformation of the region the West lost all this time after the end of the Cold War, the point is that the USA did the wrong performance, playing in the Western field but at the same time leaving behind the 4 Middle Eastern intermediaries.
As for the interests of Israel the way seen by its elite, the bet was made on the informal Union with Saudi Arabia against Iran. Now the only perspective is strategic loneliness in the region. Hezbollah at War (several thousands of guerillas who participated in a real war in Syria) is much more serious than it used to be in 2006. The destructive power and precision of common weapons are close to weapons of mass destruction. The USA will never fight at the side of Israel, only limiting cooperation by Finance support, weapons supply and exchange of military technologies. This actually makes it quite cheap to sympathize Israel from America.
Of course, Israel can try to find support in Russian diplomacy. But diplomacy is the art of the possible and everything can run into the fact that the only thing that Moscow can make for Israel is to evacuate those who entered Israel from the territory of the former USSR and their descendants. The point is that the world development and Ted the time when you have to think over the things that previously could not even come to your head. What we managed to attain in Syria was only possible due to the will of one person who was right to count the hardest situation, its risks and opportunities and having a sense of measure inherent in our culture but not the American/Western one. We followed limited targets and reached them. We're not gods. All the glow of our success lies in the fact that there was no separate “exit plan”, it was integral part of the victory strategy defining the model of our actions from start to finish. We will not leave Syria soon in this or that form, but the USA are clearly planning to meddle with us, this time as “spoilers”, and this will make Israel's position even harder, generating exaggerated expectations and dangerous illusions. The main thing is, Russia is in the region due to a necessity, we are not the “hosts” of it as the Western media try to associate us with, operating categories of their political culture, we're not going to control it the way the American did by their “strategic supervision” over it.
Israel would want good relations with Ankara. However, it is the only one who can save the situation, namely, it should offer a realistic peace project with Arabs and do it fast, while there is someone to offer and to agree with. It looks that American Administration doesn't have anything serious from this sphere. It should be taken into consideration that in any case Israel will have to wait for international guarantees and forces to provide security security of the country. This is an extreme measure. In any case, the Israel power should decide, as no one and nothing besides consequences can force them to make the right decisions.
Israel is interested in making changes in the region. The experience of the US projects that fell flat should teach them something, each one of them caused damage to the security interests as the Israel elite says now. We should remember that the war in Iraq was covered by the slogan “the road to Jerusalem lies through Baghdad” (then “through Damascus”?). Now that's Washington closes its door to Israel with their “farewell gift” and removing the responsibility for the fate of the Middle East, it's time to make a reassessment of the situation and take decisions that would provide Israel survival in the new regional atmosphere in long-term perspective.
In general color this is only about a particular fact of a western project closure by its beneficiaries, the Anglo-Saxons. The Empire “crown” prove to be very hard. God Bless the USA even rejected the project of creation of the two towers in a form of Trans-Pacific Partnership and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Englishmen were the first ones who reasoned the situation, including a considerable part of the conservative establishment. Thanks to their own experience when the ruins of the British Empire became a material for constructing a global Empire of the USA. Now it is also close to destruction, but this is the last one, as there will not be another and the only chance to be saved is one by one. That is why under a flag of a “global Britain”, London made a choice of a multi-vector diplomacy following the Russian standards and the free trade model of the 19th century. We have to believe that this subject is covered at the coalition talks of M. Schulz and A. Merkel, there is no need to try on the Western leadership but they need to save the Eurozone, which is better as the European project in the current situation is in fact down (the Germans don't want to pay for further integration), to show initiative and start working seriously on creation of the Big Europe.
When responding to the fall of Paris (and France) in June 1940, Russian poet Anna Akhmatova wrote (in Yevgeny Bonver’s translation): “When they are burying the century, The mournful psalm doesn’t arise, She will be ornamented sadly By nettle’s and thistle’s green mass.” This time we had too much noise, the sanctions-related from Washington and anti-russian one from London. This doesn't change the situation, as the allies and friends should remain in trenches till the end while “just undertakers are hurried” and working. Besides the green mass mentioned is their favorite one. The ship has a leak and gave a lurch, you shouldn't wait until it's sinks. Besides that, the Jerusalem resolution does not leave any doubt regarding the clear essence of what's going on and not only among the Arab allies of the USA.


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