Public support for EU defence spending past its peak

Overall, 52% of Europe is unconvinced that the continent is prepared, in terms of military strength, for a prolonged conflict, ‘Euractiv’ reports

Support to spend more on national defence is on the decline, an exclusive poll produced for Euractiv by Polling Europe shows.

In light of continued Russian aggression and the commitment of most EU member states to increase their defence outlay with regard to NATO’s new 5% defence spending target, the rearmament of Europe has been high on the agenda for most European capitals.

From the over 5,400 respondents surveyed, a two-thirds majority (67%) said they were in favour of increasing defence investment. However, that was a decrease of 7%, compared to the 74% who were in favour in April 2024.

At first glance, the data show a north-south split, with 59% of respondents in southern Europe, compared with 76% in central and eastern Europe and 73% in northern Europe, supporting higher defence budgets.

However, individual countries can have an outsized effect on the broader picture. Italy had significantly fewer respondents (48%) supporting an increase in defence spending when compared with Spain (68%).

By sharing a border with Russia, it comes as little surprise that Poland recorded 86% strongly supporting higher spending.

The survey was conducted 17-19 September, almost a week after 19 drones entered Polish airspace.

When the responses were organised based on European political group allegiance, the poll found more support for increased defence spending at the centre and centre-right than among parties on the left and the extreme-right: EPP 85%, Renew 80%, ECR 69%, Patriots 64%, S&D 60%, Greens 51%, The Left 50%, ESN 40%.

Almost half of respondents (48%) favoured the European Commission-coordinated defence investments, whereas 41% preferred the decision to be made nationally.

A north-south divide opened up once again, with 60% in southern Europe favouring the Commission in the driving seat, compared with 53% in central Europe and 42% in northern Europe.

Measured by European political groups, the centre-left tended to prefer coordination by the Commission (S&D 71%, Greens 70%) and the centre to right leaning groups are split between the two options.

Overall, 52% of Europeans are not convinced that the continent is militarily prepared for a prolonged military conflict with a third country. Twenty-six percent answered that Europe is “a little” prepared, while the same amount are convinced that Europe is “not at all” prepared.

Nine percent were unable to answer the question, while 10% were optimistic of the preparedness level. Meanwhile, 29% considered Europe “partially” ready for such a conflict.

Overall, northern (43%) and central Europe (46%) are more optimistic than the south (35%). Once again Spain is a outlier among its neighbours, with more respondents (47%) considering Europe prepared than not (42%).

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