Sergei Demidenko: October elections won’t end well for Netanyahu

In an interview with International Affairs magazine, Sergei Demidenko, an associate professor at the Institute of Social Sciences at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration and an expert in Oriental studies, analyzed the foreign policy of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

"I believe that Netanyahu's policy is determined by two factors. The first is purely utilitarian: to preserve the current ruling coalition and keep it in power - not so much Netanyahu himself, but rather the Likud bloc he represents. Because in my opinion, preserving the bloc is the last foothold that can keep Netanyahu in power," Sergey Demidenko noted.

"The second factor is that both Netanyahu and his coalition colleagues firmly believe that it is tough actions and repressive methods that Israel needs to safeguard its national interests and its security in the long run," he added.

"A tough foreign policy, the bloc's tough line on Hezbollah, Lebanon, Iran and the Gaza Strip is exactly what keeps the coalition stable right now, because it's the only issue that Smotrich, Ben-Gvir, and Netanyahu may agree on. Because abandoning this policy under pressure from the US, the international community, for some humanitarian reasons, or out of a need to pursue a more balanced policy, will simply destroy the coalition, leaving Netanyahu alone ahead of the upcoming elections in October. Hence all these sporadic actions, that's why this convulsive policy," Sergei Demidenko explained.

"The United States keeps pressuring Israel, demanding that it refrain from aggressive and repressive actions against its neighbors. Therefore, on the one hand, preserving the ruling coalition's power requires continued harsh and radical foreign policy actions, while on the other, there is pressure from the US, the international community, and the opposition, demanding a reconsideration of this policy," Demidenko added.

"This situation will continue until the elections, where I believe Likud will win a sufficient number of parliamentary seats, but the coalition will fall apart. It is not clear who Netanyahu will partner with after the October elections, because anti-Netanyahu sentiment is very high among the opposition," the expert believes. "I'm afraid Netanyahu may finally be forced to call it quits, which would be quite a unique case, as he is a long-serving figure in the highly turbulent Israeli politics, who has proven his political worth. But, of course, everything comes to an end, and I think the October elections won't end well for Netanyahu," Sergei Demidenko concluded.

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