Sergey Lavrov: “The Middle East is not a playground. It should not be regarded in this light. The key to the many conflicts there is the creation of a Palestinian state”

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks at 14th Middle East Conference on the sidelines of Valdai International Discussion Club, Moscow, February 4, 2025.

I would like to thank Board Chairman of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club Andrey Bystritsky and Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies in charge of research of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vitaly Naumkin for their focus on the Middle Eastern and other global priorities. The theme that was picked for holding today’s meeting has a direct link to lessons of the past concerning this region, and a number of crises unfolding in other parts of the world, and will allow us to speak our minds on a wide array of issues.

The latest data show that the crisis in Gaza has claimed the lives of 46,000 Palestinian civilians (perhaps even more, as statistics vary). Around 100,000 civilians, and counting, have been injured. Despite ceasefires, outbreaks of violence can be seen across the region.

We are talking about civilian casualties only among Palestinians, whom we mourn just as we mourn the Israeli lives lost since October 7, 2023, when a heinous terrorist act, which we immediately denounced, took place. Unfortunately, this act of terrorism was followed by a response that is not consistent with international humanitarian law, and essentially amounted to the collective punishment of the civilians in Gaza. From the very first days of the operation in Gaza, military operations were also carried out in the West Bank.

There is one more reason for me bringing this figure to your attention. By the time the operation marked its first anniversary in 2024, it had claimed over 40,000 civilian casualties among Palestinians. Statistics on civilian casualties in Ukraine on both sides of the contact line are available as well. The numbers vary, but all sources show a number that is almost half that of the Palestinian casualties over the same period. In stark contrast, the number of casualties on both sides of the Ukraine conflict that has been on for over ten years now is nearly half of that in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The fact that the civilian casualty statistics in the Ukraine conflict are hushed by Kiev and its Western patrons is also quite telling.

Following up on Palestine, the number of civilian casualties (killed and wounded) and the scale of destruction of civilian infrastructure significantly exceed the corresponding figures from the Arab-Israeli wars of 1948-1949 and 1967 which also tells its own story. Good thing that a ceasefire was finally reached after more than a year of the Security Council’s attempts to call for one. The Americans blocked all of them, using their veto power on six occasions. Then, they came up with a resolution of their own, which was presented as a solution to all issues. However, when, prior to the vote, we asked the parties (primarily Israel) whether they were willing to implement it, they evaded answering this question which is why we chose not to support it. We abstained. But it was adopted nonetheless. As anticipated, nothing changed.

Things changed only recently. I believe the new administration in the White House contributed to quickening the negotiating process. However, the key role was played by Egypt and Qatar, which, in conjunction with the Americans, secured agreements from Israel and Hamas, the first phase of which is now being implemented.

We are receiving signals that there will be issues when it comes to implementing the second phase. They have likely already begun. The Israeli ruling circles’ messaging shows that they are not entirely happy with how Hamas has fulfilled its obligations during the first phase. Therefore, they are not ruling anything out. Concurrently, Israel is continuing its military operations in the West Bank unabashedly. There are many credible leaks suggesting that, in addition to expelling Palestinians from Gaza, Israel plans to take full control of the northwestern bank of the Jordan River. Experts are also writing (and there’s no one to refute that) that Israel plans to stay on the Lebanese territory. Now, with Donald Trump, who officially declared the Syrian Golan Heights part of Israel during his first term, back in the White House these too can be considered “lost lands” from the perspective of restoring justice and achieving a comprehensive and lasting Arab-Israeli settlement.

Despite the developments unfolding in Syria and Lebanon, Libya also remains plagued by unresolved issues, where the West and East cannot agree on the way forward to address the political process. The UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy, Geir Pedersen, is acting not too transparently and utterly ineffectively. Let’s face it. He will soon be replaced by a representative from Ghana. I hope that the appointment of an African special envoy will create more credibility.

Syria faces major problems, including issues with the current leadership represented by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa and the groups that were part of this organisation (we can discuss this separately). After the change of power in Syria, they didn’t get along in terms of establishing a dialogue and understanding each other. What they should do is try to promote national dialogue as best they can, without seeking to gain geopolitical points, but thinking primarily about the future of the Syrian people. This requires concerted efforts of all external players who can influence this situation. The attempts to exclude Russia, China, and Iran from the process of providing external support for Syrian settlement are hardly driven by good intentions, but, instead, reveal the West’s plans to push its competitors to less meaningful secondary positions.

These crises have multiplied and got even worse since the Arab Spring of 2011. Western diplomats, including those in Middle Eastern countries, are accusing Russia of preventing national dialogue in Libya, because Russian military resources are deployed in that country. According to them, this is the root of all Libyan problems, which allegation they are trying to drill it into their dialogue partners’ heads. This doesn’t surprise anyone, as the West is accustomed to destabilising regions and creating crises, and then observing the outcomes. This is particularly characteristic of the Americans, who find it amusing to watch all of that from overseas.

The Middle East is not a playground. It should not be regarded in this light. The key to the many conflicts there is the creation of a Palestinian state. Numerous resolutions to this effect have been adopted at the UN General Assembly and Security Council. The two-state solution has been confirmed by all external players, including the former Biden administration, which worked in these terms. The Trump administration has not yet clearly formulated its stance on this matter.

We remember that apart from recognising the Golan Heights the Trump administration advanced and promoted the so-called Abraham Accords, which turned the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative upside down. Under the Arab initiative, the Arab countries’ relations with Israel are to be normalised after the establishment of a Palestinian state in accordance with the UN decisions. That initiative advanced by the Saudi King was approved not only by the Arab League but also by the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation at its summit in Tehran. The establishment of a Palestinian state could result in the normalisation of Israel’s relations with the Islamic world. At the very least, this proceeds from the decisions I have mentioned.  Those who are responsible for modern-day policy will say if this initiative is workable. But does this policy relate to the decisions of our predecessors?

I have mentioned the Golan Heights. It is an issue of concern to Syria. The plans regarding Gaza, which have been made public, and Israel’s actions on the West Bank of the Jordan River are revealing as well.

Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu stated at the beginning of the operation, when UN officials and politicians in many countries around the world cautioned against undermining the possibility of creating a Palestinian state, that he was not responsible for the Palestinian state but for the security of the State of Israel. It is a telling statement.

When it comes to the implementation of the UN decision, I would like to cite a telling statement made by former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in an interview with CNN on February 8, 2021. He spoke about threats to Ukraine coming from Russia. CNN's Wolf Blitzer asked Blinken that since he had mentioned the “occupation” of Crimea, a part of Donbass, by Russia at the time when the Minsk Agreements were effective, and provided he respected principles, what he would say about Israel’s years-long occupation of the Golan Heights. Antony Blinken replied that “leaving aside the legalities of that question, as a practical matter, the Golan is very important to Israel’s security.” That was his immediate response. Therefore, when the West declares that it will not allow anyone to infringe on the sovereignty of others, I say that there are many other statements that can be quoted to prove that the West has no respect whatsoever for international law. It only selects the parts of law it finds applicable at any given moment.

read more in our Telegram-channel https://t.me/The_International_Affairs