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11:14 15.06.2025 •
Zelensky's behavior threatens the West
Photo: AP
Ukraine’s Zelensky called the operation an “absolutely brilliant outcome.” Over 100 Ukrainian-made drones, hidden inside wooden sheds on trucks parked near five airbases deep inside Russian territory, were released and remotely steered into Russian warplanes in an intelligence operation code-named “Spider’s Web” that took 18 months to plan.
Operation Spider’s Web exposed serious Russian vulnerabilities. But those vulnerabilities will not slow the Russian advance in Ukraine. The operation will not help Ukraine win the war and may, as with other spectacular operations, contribute to its losing it. And there are the wider dangers of undermining the arms control regime and pulling the West into a wider war. Ukrainian intelligence spun an impressive Spider’s Web. Now they — and we — risk getting caught in it, ‘The American Conservative’ stresses.
As happened with the Kursk offensive, Ukraine runs the risk that an audacious operation could lead to a Russian response that proves more devastating in military terms. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that, during a recent phone call, “President Putin did say, and very strongly that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has confirmed that Putin told Trump that there would be a Russian response “when and how our military deems appropriate.”
And yet, U.S. officials believe that Russia’s promised retaliation “has not happened yet in earnest.” They believe the looming attack “is likely to be a significant, multi-pronged strike” that could be “huge, vicious and unrelenting.”
And the danger is not just to Ukraine. Since the planes targeted in the drone attack were no ordinary planes, but bombers capable of carrying nuclear bombs as part of a Russian response to a nuclear strike, the operation poses risks for nuclear arms control.
The New START Treaty aims to verifiably reduce the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia. It went into effect in February 2011 and was extended until February 2026. It is the last remaining strategic arms control treaty between the U.S. and Russia. It contains transparency measures for verifying each side’s compliance with its obligations. An important component of that transparency, per Richard Sakwa, Emeritus Professor of Russian and European Politics at the University of Kent, is that “these strategic bombers have to be kept in the open so that they can be observed from space.”
Keeping the strategic bombers open to satellite imagery was meant to facilitate verification of compliance with the treaty, not to facilitate an attack on nuclear architecture. After Ukraine’s attack, Russia may feel tempted to reconsider its obligations under the New START Treaty. Sakwa says the Ukrainian attack “strikes a blow against the arms control regime.” And that is a danger to the world.
Moreover, Operation Spider’s Web, as with many previous escalations in this war, risks drawing the West into a regional war. Given the recent history of the West providing the Ukrainian armed forces with satellite imagery and targeting information, there is the danger that Russia will suspect Western involvement.
Following the Ukrainian attacks on two Russian railway bridges just before the attack on Russia’s strategic airfields, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, “It is obvious that everything is being done by the Ukrainian side, but it would be helpless without the support of the British. Although who knows, maybe the US special services are also involved there by inertia, but the British are there 100%.”
Operation Spider’s Web will not help Ukraine win the war and may, as with other spectacular operations, contribute to its losing it.
And there are the wider dangers of undermining the arms control regime and pulling the West into a wider war.
Ukrainian intelligence spun an impressive spider’s web. Now they — and we — risk getting caught in it.
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