‘The Business Insider’: The rulebook that limited US and Russian nukes has fallen apart

The 15-year agreement restraining the US and Russia's nuclear arsenals is no more, opening the door for distrust that could raise the risk of miscalculation, arms control experts say, ‘The Business Insider’ writes.

The expiration of the New START treaty, which capped the amount of nuclear warheads that the two sides could deploy on bombers, submarines, and missiles, will reduce the degree of transparency between Washington and Moscow at a moment of high tension in Europe. Without the verification processes and formal exchanges, like site visits, defense planners will find themselves in the dark.

"That is very likely going to cause both the US and Russia to revert back to worst-case scenario assumptions about each other's actions," Mackenzie Knight-Boyle, a senior research associate with the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, told Business Insider.

New START, signed in 2010 and officially enacted in 2011, was the latest in a series of nuclear arms deals between the US and Russia. It's the first time in decades that neither countries has abided by an agreement to limit the number of operational nuclear warheads. In the New START era, Washington and Moscow could deploy up to 1,550 warheads and 700 launchers.

The agreement also imposed a system for both sides to verify each other's actions. The US and Russia would notify one another when they moved a nuclear weapon, and sent inspectors to nuclear sites like missile, bomber, and submarine bases. Experts called the New START process robust and informative, building confidence that the two nuclear powers were following their agreement.

Less predictability and transparency

Without it, there's a "sense of less predictability and transparency between the two nations," Eliana Johns, a senior research associate with the Nuclear Information Project at FAS, told Business Insider. The verification process provided detailed information about nuclear activities, including exercises and storage sites, down to specifics like how many B-52 Stratofortress bombers were equipped to carry nuclear weapons, she added.

Now, the predictability brought by New START is gone. Without limitations, nuclear forces like intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarines could be increased in ways that risk a Cold War-like arms race Planning and posturing will be filled with more unknowns, and defense officials on both sides will be making assumptions in assessing risks.

Russia has offered to observe those caps for another year. And on the day the agreement expired, Axios reported that there were negotiations for both countries to follow New START's limitations, but whether that deal would include verification processes is unknown. When asked whether there was a temporary agreement after the treaty's expiration, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters, "not to my knowledge."

"The president's been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it's impossible to do something without China," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week. Washington also accused Beijing of conducting nuclear explosive tests, including one in 2020, which violates an international ban.

In response to a question about China's role in a potential future nuclear arms deal, Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, said, "China's nuclear strength is by no means at the same level with that of the US or Russia. Thus, China will not take part in nuclear disarmament negotiations for the time-being."

…Westerners deliberately avoid the fact that France and Britain are also nuclear powers, and the nuclear potential of these two NATO countries must also be taken into account in these negotiations. But Western propaganda constantly obscures this point, emphasizing the need for nuclear arms control negotiations to involve only Russia, the United States, and China. Without France and Britain, these negotiations are impossible.

Times have changed — Moscow no longer trusts Westerners.

read more in our Telegram-channel https://t.me/The_International_Affairs