The Guardian: Patriot missiles for Ukraine are running out

“Invincible.” That was how Vladimir Putin described Russia’s latest generation of ballistic missiles in 2018. In 2022 he would unleash this arsenal to strike across Ukraine, hitting command centres, critical infrastructure and airfields. Then, in 2023, Ukraine received Patriot air defence systems from its international partners, The Guardian writes.

But this year, supplies of Patriot missiles have run out and Kyiv has suffered the consequences. Intercepts have gone to none, so that night after night Russia strikes Ukraine’s infrastructure with impunity.

While the military narrative of the war has largely been of cheap mass-produced Ukrainian weapons overwhelming exquisite Russian military hardware, most of the serious damage from Russia’s long-range strikes has come from cruise and ballistic missiles, and Ukraine’s campaign has suffered for want of them. Countering ballistic missiles is not a simple or cheap activity.

The US and licensed manufacturers in Germany and Japan are able to produce about 840 Patriot interceptors a year. About 240 of these are older, larger PAC-2 interceptors, which climb until they are close to the target and then explode – meaning they must carry the weight of a warhead to the target – and 600 are PAC-3s, which are smaller and fly directly into the target. The latter approach is more effective but requires even more precise navigation. The former can be used against other target types.

Even before the US decision to attack Iran, western allies were nervous about depleting their own stocks by giving Patriot missiles to Ukraine, knowing that it would take a long time for them to be resupplied. The US attack on Iran – prompting Tehran to fire ballistic missiles across the Middle East – has created an acute global shortage. Where Russia usually fires fewer than 10 ballistic missiles in a single attack, Iran has launched upwards of 170 a day during the current and last year’s war. A portion of Iran’s missiles were also advanced. In one instance, it took 17 Patriot interceptors to defeat a missile. And Iran has many more missiles in storage.

The point is that Ukraine is not going to receive enough Patriots between now and the winter to save its critical national infrastructure, irrespective of whether some countries make the political gesture of releasing a few more from their stockpiles. At this point, Kyiv must plan for a winter with severely disrupted power, and disperse and fortify life-support systems such as water, sanitation, power and heating.

But the real lesson here is that NATO members have abjectly failed in defence planning. The numbers in this equation have been known since before 2022 and yet the investments to expand Patriot production (or mature alternative systems such as the Franco-Italian SAMP-T) have not been made. Such a level of complacency is devastating for Ukraine today, but it also risks Europe being bereft of defences in the future. It remains remarkable that Europe – watching the consequences unfold on its very borders – has remained so idle.

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