‘The Independent’: The West neglects the other half of the World at its peril

The Old World may not have to be eclipsed before the contours of a New Order can be glimpsed, ‘The Independent’ writes in a panic...

More than 25 national leaders and heads of 10 international organisations are meeting in the Chinese coastal city of Tianjin to talk about security, the global economy and regional issues. Hosted by China’s Xi Jinping, participants include Vladimir Putin of Russia, Narendra Modi of India (on his first trip to China for seven years), and the leaders of Iran, Indonesia and Turkey. Together, their countries account for a quarter of the world’s GDP – and growing – and almost half of the world’s population.

Standby for the group photo – if you wanted an illustration of a large part of the world’s future, here it is:

Summit SCO in China.
Photo: RIA Novosti

Just compare – Trump greets European leaders at White House:

Photo: ABC

Given the scale of the events and the level of attendance, both at the SCO and the Second World War anniversary, you might well ask why the West seems to have shown so relatively little interest – or alarm. One reason, of course, is simply the weight of other news, including political crises in parts of Europe, tensions in the UK over asylum hotels, the violence in and around Gaza, and Donald Trump’s stuttering efforts to end the war in Ukraine. And now his court defeat on tariffs has unleashed new turmoil, which will doubtless feature prominently in discussions at Tianjin.

For the West to neglect what is happening in China this week, however, would be a big mistake. Even if there is more symbol than substance, the multiple messages that are being sent need to be heeded. Among them are these. On Russia: Trump’s Alaska summit might have ended Putin’s isolation by the West, but the extent of that isolation was exaggerated. Putin remained persona grata in much of the world – and he will take his place as a major international leader at Tianjin. On Russia and China: Xi and Putin will appear at the Beijing military parade, but along with others. This is no exclusive alliance; it is a partnership of largely economic convenience that exists in a wider regional context.

On China and India: the SCO summit was preceded by extensive talks between India’s Modi and Xi, giving the lie, for the moment at least, to the common idea that the world does not have enough room for both of them. On Russia and India: Trump seems to have gambled on using the threat of stratospheric tariffs to stop India from buying Russian energy. Not only has India defied that intimidation, but the tariffs themselves may not survive. And on Central Asia: the survival and possible revival of the SCO challenges the longstanding Western belief that Russia and China have to be engaged in a deadly rivalry for influence in the region.

None of this means that, in Russia’s case, it would not prefer to orient its trade and diplomacy back towards the US and Europe, where it feels it belongs. Nor does it mean that there are not tensions in a group as loosely defined and geographically broad as the SCO, or that there are not forces of national interest that may pull them apart.

What it does mean is that leaders representing almost half the world’s population are discussing their future without particular reference to, still less dependence on, the West.

The Old World may not have to be eclipsed before the contours of a New Order can be glimpsed.

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