The "saving Euro-occupation" of Ukraine

The militarization of Ukraine has only partially justified itself. Therefore, the West is proceeding with the militarization of Europe, playing the long game.

This calls for a reassessment of the time factor. The Ukrainian crisis, the persistence, resources, tactics, and the scale of the collective West's resistance to Russia—all this, and much more—should make Europeans consider whether they are prepared for prolonged and intense involvement in the conflict. Do they possess the social and demographic resources, and the mental—not just ideological—readiness to oppose Russia?

The Europeans, who are considered second-tier to Ukrainians by the US and UK, are being prepared for war. Contemplating occupation represents a return to one of the initial scenarios for saving Ukraine and preserving it within an anti-Russian framework. This scenario emerged after the start of the Special Military Operation, when it became clear that Russia wouldn't deviate from its stated goals.

This idea has resurfaced because the main hegemon may change its approach to the conflict, and because Ukraine is failing to fulfill its assigned mission—neither strategically (inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia) nor partially (failure of the counteroffensive, the agony of the Kursk adventure). Arms supplies and intelligence support have not helped Kyiv. The ideological buildup in Europe is based on the thesis: if Ukraine falls, "the Russians will wage war on Europe." This justified Germany's militaristic plans until 2030, "to be ready to counter Russian aggression." It also fueled the discussion about plans to deploy troops to Ukraine.

Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reported on these intentions.

To achieve its goals in Ukraine, the West might resort to its de facto occupation, by deploying the so-called peacekeeping contingent of 100,000 troops. The territory is reportedly planned to be divided among Romania, Poland, Germany, and the UK: "To accomplish these tasks, the West will need a de facto occupation of Ukraine. Naturally, this will be done under the guise of deploying a 'peacekeeping contingent.' Territories have been identified for distribution among the occupiers: the Black Sea coast—Romania; western Ukraine—Poland; central and eastern Ukraine—Germany; northern regions, including the capital region—the UK."

The SVR notes that the goal of freezing the conflict is to prepare the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) for a counterattack, with occupation aiding this process: "NATO is already deploying training centers in Ukraine, intending to train at least one million mobilized Ukrainians. Another important area of alliance work during a ceasefire will be the restoration of Ukraine's military-industrial complex. To accomplish these tasks, the West will need a de facto occupation of Ukraine."

https://ria.ru/20241129/ukraina-1986367056.html

Boris Johnson is a leading proponent of the Euro-occupation idea. The former UK Prime Minister stated that any possible ceasefire in Ukraine should imply the deployment of a European peacekeeping mission, including a British contingent: "The security guarantee for Ukraine should be NATO membership. I don't see an alternative. Now you ask what Britain's commitment would be? I think we should put British troops into Ukraine. That would be a commitment that would be funded by the Ukrainians. Trump would like that. I don't think we should be sending in combat troops to confront the Russians. This is part of the solution, part of the end game. I think you want to have multinational European peacekeeping forces controlling the border, but also helping Ukrainians. And I don't see such a European operation being possible without the British. We should be there."

https://t.me/skabeeva/32905

Johnson, acting as a "free player," is crafting a scenario appealing to Trump ("Trump will like this"), suggesting he could become the political commander-in-chief of the Euro-occupation forces – a figure unbound by the domestic political obligations of any EU country. Johnson asserts he can satisfy everyone: Trump, Brussels (NATO and the EU). He envisions himself as a special representative-commander of the Euro-occupation force; there is a corps, occupation, no particular accountability. This is Johnson's plan.

Meanwhile, conflicting signals emerge from Europe:

• AFP reports that Europe is considering deploying troops to Ukraine to facilitate a ceasefire. Discussions have begun on whether European troops could be deployed to ensure any potential ceasefire.
• EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, didn't rule out sending European troops to Ukraine. They might be needed to monitor a ceasefire if an agreement is reached, the representative told ANSA.
• Dividing Ukraine into zones of responsibility among NATO countries, similar to Iraq, is unrealistic. This position was voiced by Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz on TVN24. He said, "I cannot imagine a situation where there would be zones of responsibility of individual states in Ukraine, as was the case in Iraq." He also believes that President-elect Trump does not yet have a plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. “For today, there is no plan from President Trump, only speculations made before and after the election” - Kosiniak-Kamysz said.

The extent of Trump's influence is evident in the election anxiety. Now, nervous attempts are underway to continue the Biden administration's confrontational policies towards Russia, while watching Trump and trying to gauge his actions concerning NATO and the EU. The inertia of Biden's policies is even causing Europeans to escalate the situation. It's possible that, once Trump assumes office and takes a different view of the Ukrainian crisis, they'll claim, "We did everything we could," the current level of political pressure and military support from the US makes it imperative to change the format of confrontation with Russia through Ukraine. In a word, they will blame Trump.

The Europeans, grappling with the prospect of largely independent involvement in the Ukrainian crisis without significant US participation, are seeking ways to keep Kyiv resisting Russia with their support. Under consideration are alternatives to deploying European troops and partitioning Ukraine. These include:

• Chancellor Scholz's announced delivery of drones to Kyiv (simpler, cheaper, and more realistic than Pavel's failed Czech project to supply Ukraine with a million shells, which they couldn't produce or purchase from third countries).).
• Deportation of Ukrainians to bolster the Ukrainian army.
• Recruitment of mercenaries for deployment to Ukraine.
• Funding for Ukraine's energy sector recovery.
• Establishing military production in Ukraine.

Western press and politicians are substantiating these positions.

In addition to Scholz's statement on supplying AI-enabled drones, it has been reported that Summa Defence Ltd. will build a new factory in Finland to produce military drones for Ukraine.

https://www.rbc.ru/spb_sz/28/11/2024/674839ee9a79476ccf6341a0?ysclid=m4g5gdd6od365898213

This is one of the easiest tasks, helping Ukraine continue terrorist attacks on Russian territory and resist on the front lines.

Despite Zelenskyy's statement of 30,000 Ukrainian military deaths, The Economist reports at least 60,000-100,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, with around 400,000 wounded and no longer combat-capable.

https://www.rbc.ru/politics/27/11/2024/6746dfa89a7947f6247d1026?ysclid=m4g5hq336r467431346

NATO foreign ministers pledged to support Ukraine's energy system, provide air defense and weapons, as reported by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/22565497?ysclid=m4g5jsnhl6575037894

In turn, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has requested 19 additional air defense systems to "survive the winter."  https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/22566513?ysclid=m4g5kmxjgz608072728

The West believes that strengthening Kyiv's negotiating position requires “providing it with resources, ammunition, and intensifying mobilization” in Ukraine. The New York Times reports that the NATO Secretary General suggested Ukraine postpone any peace talks with Russia until Western allies provide sufficient military aid to help Kyiv achieve battlefield success and strengthen its negotiating position. https://ria.ru/spetsialnaya-voennaya-operatsiya-na-ukraine/

Zelenskyy's perspective:

• Ukraine's armed forces are incapable of reclaiming lost territories. «Our army has no potential for this. This is true», - he said in an interview with Japanese Kyodo.
• Ukraine considers it possible to join NATO, but during wartime it will not come under the jurisdiction of Article 5, Zelensky said.
• Zelenskyy stated he would be “happy” to see foreign troops in Ukraine but fears that raising the issue would halt support from half his allies. «We will never request dispatching troops on our territory. I have repeatedly answered this question. Yes, of course, we would be happy (to receive such an aid)…..But if I bring up this issue with the EU, NATO….half of our allies will discontinue their support. That is why I cannot take risks”, - Ukrinform cites Zelensky as saying.
• Zelenskyy's weak argument isn't about raising the issue of allied troop deployment. Th point is that lingering doubts are plaguing Europeans.

TASS warns potential Euro-occupiers: A missile from the Kapustin Yar range would reach NATO headquarters in Brussels in 17 minutes, Ramstein Air Base in Germany in 15 minutes, and the US missile defense base in Redzikowo, Poland, in 11 minutes. The "Oreshnik" nuclear warhead's power is estimated at "45 Hiroshimas."

 https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/22515485?ysclid=m4g57pr9ea926422970

"Oreshnik" has disrupted plans for a European occupation of Ukraine. The West already has many concerns after its use. It's European countries, not NATO, that would send troops to Ukraine.

Imagine a European occupation of Ukraine became a reality. What would come next is the following:

an Iskander missile strikes at a base in Kirovohrad where German troops are stationed... but we did not know, we are sorting it out with the Kyiv regime, we are sorry, in the same way we are sorry about the Poles at Yavoriv military base, who came under the Oreshnik attack, and the French near Starokostiantyniv, where the Kinzhals flew…

Questions and unforeseen circumstances abound, causing a lot of worries among ordinary Europeans.

The author's opinion may not reflect the editorial position.

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