The Telegraph: ‘Dusk for Norway is dawn for Russia’ – alarm as gas fields supplying the UK begin to run out

For decades, Norway has been Britain’s leading source of imported energy. However, that relationship may be set to come under strain after the Scandinavian nation warned that its vast oil and gas fields are in decline, ‘The Telegraph’ notes.

The threat of dwindling production would herald a potential energy crisis for the UK, which last year relied on Norway for half its gas and a quarter of its oil.

Worse still, a drop in Norwegian output would strengthen Russia’s grip on the global gas market, posing a geopolitical nightmare for governments across Europe.

According to a new report from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD), the country’s oil and gas supplies peaked last year and are expected to dwindle from now on.

Its findings revealed Norway produced about 230m standard cubic metres of oil and gas in 2024, although that could fall to as low as 110m cubic metres by 2035.

Experts claim extra investment could help slow the decline, although there is no escaping from the fact that Norway’s best oil and gas fields are becoming increasingly depleted.

“We expect overall production to decline in the later 2020s,” the report from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate said.

While an obvious concern for Norwegian households, the latest warning from the NOD will also send a chill through Ed Miliband’s Energy Department.

Last year, Norway became Britain’s primary source of gas after supplying 29bn cubic metres, whereas the UK’s North Sea output shrank to 26bn cubic metres.

Over the next decade, UK production is expected to decline by a further 70pc, meaning reliance on costly imported gas will increase in the coming years.

Norway has long been expected to be the primary source of that gas.

However, the UK and the rest of Europe now face the prospect of being forced into the arms of countries like Russia if Norway starts to turn off the taps.

“Dusk for Norway is dawn for Russia,” says Andreas Schroeder, head of energy analytics at the Independent Commodity Intelligence Service (ICIS).

“Russia is unlikely to dominate Europe again as in the past when it had nearly 40pc market share.

“But the call to open the pipes and gates for cheap Russian gas will get louder over time as gas prices increase with dwindling Norwegian output.

“It creates a case for more cooperation with Russia and will encourage Russia-friendly politicians in countries like Slovakia and Hungary.”

The Green Party of Norway, which has pledged to “shut down the use of fossil fuels as quickly as possible”, won just three of Norway’s 169 parliamentary seats in the 2021 election.

But the Greens’ apparent failure was not because the electorate rejected their ideas.

Instead, the winning coalition parties, comprising the social-democratic Labour Party (48 seats) and the agrarian Centre Party (28 seats), both latched on to the anti-fossil fuels bandwagon and committed to a “managed transition” away from fossil fuels.

They are supported, albeit unofficially, by the Socialist Left Party (13 seats) – which wants an immediate halt to all oil exploration.

It means Norway is now ruled by political parties committed to halting oil and gas production, albeit disagreeing over how long it will take to achieve it.

Michael Bradshaw, professor of Global Energy at Warwick Business School, says Britain had farmed out most of its oil and gas exploration to foreign companies, leading to profits being funnelled offshore…

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