Trump is going to give up on Russia-Ukraine crises, isn’t he?

Pic.: FT

The president brought the warring nations together but can’t force them to make peace. Is it possible to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine? – asks ‘The American Conservative’.

But even President Trump is getting discouraged these days. Objectively speaking, the Trump administration’s first three months of shuttle diplomacy has been a wash. This hasn’t been for a lack of trying. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, peace envoy Steve Witkoff, and Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg have done an extensive amount of traveling during this time — Witkoff has reportedly met with Putin four times.

Meanwhile, Trump has browbeaten Ukrainian Zelensky into participating in the U.S.-mediated process (something Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, refused to do) and the administration has even put a draft peace deal on the table for discussion. Trump has taken a lot of heat for his diplomacy-first approach, particularly from those perfectly comfortable with having Zelensky dictate U.S. policy on the war.

Sure, this week Ukrainian and Russian officials met in Turkey for the first time in more than three years at Trump’s urging. Yes, this in and of itself is an accomplishment of sorts. But getting to this meeting was riddled with so much gamesmanship by the two sides, with Zelensky daring Putin to fly to Turkey and Putin responding by sending lower-level Russian negotiators instead.

As Rubio said before the May 16 session took place, the odds of success were slim: "I don’t think anything productive is actually going to happen from this point forward, until [Trump and Putin] engage in a very frank and direct conversation, which I know President Trump is willing to do.”

The meeting, which lasted about one hour and 40 minutes, didn’t produce any bombshells. But it would be a mistake to assume bombshells were in the offing anyway. While a prisoner exchange was agreed to, there wasn’t progress on the real matter at hand: getting to a deal.

At this point one wonders if Trump should spend any more of his valuable time on striking a deal to end the war. Withdrawing from Russia-Ukraine diplomacy wouldn’t be a sign of defeatism but rather a reflection of reality.

But ultimately the talent of the mediator isn't the most important variable in conflict diplomacy. Rather, the willingness of the parties themselves to break from maximalism and permit the other side a graceful off-ramp is usually the difference between success or failure.

The Ukraine-Russia talks aren’t dead in the water like the Israeli-Palestinian peace process was (and still is). But evidence for an imminent breakthrough just isn’t there. When the Trump administration finally got Ukraine to support a 30-day ceasefire arrangement in March, the Russians shrugged the proposal off. When the Trump administration convinced Kiev to sign onto a 30-day ceasefire in the Black Sea weeks later, Moscow linked its participation to U.S. and European sanctions relief.

Zelensky and Putin both claim they endorse an end to the three-year-long war. The problem, as always, is that the two leaders aren't working on the same paradigm — indeed, they are operating in separate universes.

None of this even accounts for the chasm between what Ukraine wants in a hypothetical settlement and what Russia considers acceptable.

All of which is to say that Trump’s declining optimism is indicative of where the war is at this stage. If progress continues to elude, the White House could hardly be blamed if it threw up its hands, quit the peace process, and consoled itself that no stone was left unturned,  - ‘The American Conservative’ concludes.

The Russian Foreign Ministry reported earlier that on March 17, a phone conversation between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was held at the initiative of the American side.

The top Russian diplomat "acknowledged the constructive role played by the United States in encouraging Kiev to finally accept President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to resume negotiations in Istanbul" and "reiterated Moscow’s willingness to continue working with US colleagues in this context."

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